Category: U.S. National News
Tuesday, 11 September 2018 00:47
Written by News Desk Staff
The National Hurricane Center has issued another report about Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic Ocean, approaching the east coast of the United States, near the Border between North and South Carolina - and they have issued a STUNNING warning.
According to Forecaster Beven:
LIFE-THREATENING FRESHWATER FLOODING FROM PROLONGED AND EXCEPTIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL EXTEND *** FOR HUNDREDS OF MILES INLAND OVER THE CAROLINAS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC ***
Here is the full report from the National Hurricane Center:
WTNT41 KNHC 110242
Hurricane Florence Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
The rapid intensification of Florence ended just after the last
advisory, with the central pressure falling to near 939 mb. Since
that time, the eyewall convection has become a bit ragged and the
latest central pressure from the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is near 944 mb. The initial intensity will remain a
possibly generous 120 kt for this advisory based on the aircraft
winds. Microwave imagery suggests that Florence may be starting an
eyewall replacement cycle. However, the winds from the Hurricane
Hunter did not clearly indicate the presence of an outer eyewall.
Florence should remain in a light shear environment and over sea
surface temperatures near 29C for at least the next 48 h. Thus,
there is little other than eyewall replacement cycles to keep the
hurricane from intensifying further as indicated by all of the
intensity guidance. The new intensity forecast calls for continued
strengthening to near category 5 strength, although at a slower rate
than what occurred during the last 30 h. Florence is expected to
encounter southwesterly shear near the 72 h point, which could
cause slight weakening before landfall. However, there remains high
confidence that Florence will be a large and extremely dangerous
hurricane, regardless of its exact intensity.
The initial motion is 290/11. A building mid-level ridge over the
northwestern Atlantic is expected to steer Florence
west-northwestward to northwestward with an increase in forward
speed during the next 48 h. After that time, a marked decrease in
forward speed is likely as another ridge builds over the Great
Lakes to the north of Florence. The track guidance continues to
show some spread between the ECMWF on the left side of the envelope
and the GFS on the right side. Overall, though, the guidance has
again shifted a little to the right, and the 72-96 h points are
nudged just a little to the right from the previous forecast. It is
important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC
errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,
respectively, and dangerous hazards will extend well away from the
The NOAA G-IV jet will continue to conduct synoptic surveillance
missions every 12 h through at least Wednesday. In addition, special
0600 UTC and 1800 UTC radiosonde launches have been expanded to
additional upper-air stations across the U.S. to collect extra data
for the numerical models. The next Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter mission into Florence is scheduled for near 12Z.
1. A life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coastlines of South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia, and
a Storm Surge Watch will likely be issued for some of these areas by
Tuesday morning. All interests from South Carolina into the mid-
Atlantic region should ensure they have their hurricane plan in
place and follow any advice given by local officials.
2. Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over
the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles as Florence is
expected to slow down as it approaches the coast and moves inland.
3. Damaging hurricane-force winds are likely along portions of the
coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and a Hurricane Watch
will likely be issued by Tuesday morning. Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.
4. Large swells affecting Bermuda and portions of the U.S. East
Coast will continue this week, resulting in life-threatening surf
and rip currents.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/0300Z 25.9N 62.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 26.5N 64.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 27.9N 67.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 29.6N 70.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.3N 73.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 34.0N 76.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 35.5N 78.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 36.5N 79.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
The phrase "hundreds of miles" now brings into the areas to be affected, all of North and South Carolina, Northern Georgia, most of Virginia, Maryland, Delaware and New Jersey.
Persons in these states should begin IMMEDIATE preparations for "Life-threatening flooding" from prolonged and exceptionally heavy rainfall.
- Gas-up your vehicles immediately because gas stations in both Carolinas are already mostly OUT OF GASOLINE, stores are already OUT OF WATER and BATTERIES.
- Stock-up on WATER to get each member of your family at least ONE WEEK SUPPLY, in case municipal water supplies are CONTAMINATED by run-off from severe flooding.
- Have emergency food for a MINIMUM of ONE WEEK in case flooding prevents stores from opening or from being re-supplied.
- Get plenty of Batteries for flashlights and portable radios.
DO NOT WAIT. If you wait, you will find empty gas stations and empty store shelves.
This is the single most serious weather event to strike the east coast of the US in DECADES. If you wait to begin preparing, there won't be anything left for you to buy because others acted first. So stop reading the Internet, get in your car right now, gas-up, and get supplies. No, it cannot wait until morning.