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Hurricane Michael has now become a Category 3 Hurricane and is rapidly . . . RAPIDLY . . . . increasing in strength toward Category 4.

If you live or work on the Florida Panhandle, you should EVACUATE.  Few structures can withstand this type of ferocious storm; the winds tear-apart roofs and walls, little pieces at a time, until they suffer complete failure.  One a roof or wall breaches, wind causes the house to blow apart.

Storm Surge coming ashore is expected to be a minimum of NINE FEET above dry ground within several miles of the coastline.

One top of that storm surge will be crashing waves.  Between the surge and the waves, houses will be literally knocked off their foundations into the violent, churning water.   Anyone inside will be killed and the ocean won't even stop to think about it as it takes them under.

PLEASE EVACUATE.

Those told to evacuate but who refuse should use black magic marker to write their social security number on their forearms to make it easier to identify their dead body when it is found.

According to the Okaloosa County Sheriff's Department, as of 8:21 this morning, water has begun coming ashore in Shalimar, Florida, near Destin and Fort Walton Beach!  Worse, this is taking place despite this area being protected by offshore barrier islands!  

National Hurricane Center forecasters are now warning that "wave heights as the storm comes ashore will reach or exceed forty feet!"

As of 0400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 (Advisory # 13)
Saffir-Simpson Wind Scale: Category 3
Maximum Sustained Winds: 105 knots; 120 mph
Minimum Central Pressure: 957 mb
Located at: 26.0N 86.4W
Movement: north at 10 knots; 12 mph

 

SEA SWELLS

 

Here is the official projection map from the National Hurricane Center showing FORTY FOOT wave around the eyewall as Michael comes ashore:

 

 

Warnings of STORM SURGE have already gone up, with the MINIMUM showing NINE FEET of water above normal high tide covering land:

 

Here is a satellite view of Hurricane Michael as of about 1:00 PM EDT Tuesday afternoon:

 

 

The official National Hurricane Center interim report as of 2:00 PM eastern daylight time Tuesday:

 

000
WTNT34 KNHC 091741
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.  This is a
life-threatening situation.  Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours.  Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h).  A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday.  On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected, and Michael is
forecast to be a major hurricane at landfall in Florida. Weakening
is expected after landfall as Michael moves through the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185
miles (295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean
winds of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday.  Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time.  Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF:  Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES:  The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

UPDATE 3:58 PM EDT --

The storm is already pushing so much water in the entire Gulf of Mexico, that Tidal Surge has already begun to flood Sanibel, FL.  Video from Tuesday afternoon, below:

 

 

 

 

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  • Comment held for moderation.
    Florida Native · 10:51 10/10/2018
    OK, we know there's a hurricane in Florida, or a portion of Florida. What's going on in the rest of the country and world?
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Amy Stanley · 07:40 10/10/2018
    Hal, are you still running this site or have you bugged out and left someone else in charge? The last week or so your articles have not been the same.
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Migrate Inland, Alre · 02:34 10/10/2018
    Time to migrate away from the coasts and inland, people. How many seasons does it take to learn that coastal living is about as safe as living in a major city...for differing reasons, of course.
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Petey Pete · 01:23 10/10/2018
    Peteloaf! Great name.
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Sue · 01:21 10/10/2018
    Storm surge now called at 13 feet from Alligator Pt. west to Port St. Joe. If you live in that area get out now.
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Peteloaf · 23:45 10/09/2018
    Dude you seem like such a crazy smacktard sometimes with all of the doom and gloom. I guess this is how you gin up revenue but come on dont stress everyone out so bad. If you ive in Panama City you need to go somewher else for a day or two otherwise just stay home of the roads are flooded out. It is NOT the end of civilization.
    • Comment held for moderation.
      Frank · 01:23 10/10/2018
      Judgement is coming, Peteloaf's gettin' hot, Oh, judgement is coming and Peteloaf's gettin' hot. Get saved and avoid the fires of hell, Peteloaf!
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Steve M · 23:04 10/09/2018
    God is trying to get our attention.
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Sammy jew pig · 21:33 10/09/2018
    I can only hope many jews are washed out to sea .
  • Comment held for moderation.
    Sue Ellen · 18:43 10/09/2018
    We just got back home from taking care of our horse that we board at a place 5 miles due north of home in Fort Walton Beach. It's not far from Shalimar. Hal, what you're saying and showing here is spot on. Crossing the Cinco Bayou bridge was enough to turn anybody into a believer today! It spans a good sized waterway, and let me tell you, that water level is rising FAST!


    Met a friend out at the barn, and she showed me pics of where they dock their boat (now moved to a safer marina), and that water level is almost level with the dock and walkway.


    Now....the weather guy's saying that in spite of rising waters, IF we get a strong north wind, it could blow the water out of the bays and waterways and back into the Gulf...….huh?!


    I've never seen anything like this, nor heard weather people so nervous. My guess is we simply don't know exactly what's going to happen here......except that it's going to get a lot rougher than most expect......and very scary.


    Thank you so much for keeping all this data and information out there.....people need to know what's happening.....
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