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Let's talk about why China (and most of the rest of the world) is fucked, but the USA is, and will continue to be, fine.

Follow me back to 1946. Europe is ruined, China is still a backwater. The USA puts together an alliance that allows everyone within it to trade goods into the US without significant trade barriers. This allows for Europe to export their way back to prosperity after WWII. It gives them room to grow their economies beyond what their somewhat depleted populations will allow. In addition to allowing the free flow of goods, the USA becomes the security guarantor of the free world by using our navy to police the world's oceans and enable low risk (and hence low cost) global trade.

But there was a condition. In order to deal with the US, you had to be on our side in helping to combat and contain the Soviet Union. Essentially the US traded some of its economic/manufacturing capacity for increased security and strategic assets to assist in the cold war. Only one problem: We won. The Soviet flag went down in 1991, and we didn't really make any changes to the world order. George H. W. Bush tried to reinvent the system, and we booted him out of office after a single term. Since then, the people of the US have voted overwhelmingly for candidates who focus on domestic rather than foreign issues. The system limped along for another few decades, primarily because of the USA's massive demand for oil and energy resources.

Enter shale. Since around 2007 net US energy imports have been in sharp decline because we discovered how to process shale into oil and natural gas. And boy, do we have a LOT of shale. Within a year or two, the US will become a net energy exporter. Meaning we no longer give a fuck what's going on in the middle east. Meaning we can bring our troops back (Notice the institutional outrage over Trump pulling troops out of Syria? This is why. They're terrified of the current world order collapsing.) To drive the point home, for the past half century or so, the USA has kept a naval carrier group in the gulf sea at all times in order to protect Saudi oil supplies. But more recently, the past few years, it's only been there about 6 months out of the year.

We're done protecting the world and getting nothing in return, as you can see by the foreign heads of state visiting Trump. Shinzo Abe knows he needs America's help, so he brings a five hundred-billion-dollar investment for US infrastructure and manufacturing with him. Good play. Theresa May knows she needs America's help, so she offers to sail the Royal Navy's two brand new supercarriers with US fleets, and offers to share intel from Britain's Intelligence services, who recently had their budgets doubled. Good play. Xi Jinpeng... knows America is not going to help him. So he put everything on the table, from IP law to the trade deficit to product dumping to North Korean denuclearization, all so we wouldn’t go in for the kill right then and there. Best play he had. Angela Merkel doesn't know or doesn’t think she needs America's help, so she shows up telling Trump "If you do this, it will be the end of the of Europe." And he hands her a three hundred-billion-dollar bill for services rendered. She didn't bring anything to the table. Bad play.

So where are we now? As previously mentioned, the US is the least globally integrated economy by percentage of GDP. We're evolving into a global superpower with no global interests. It's not a Trump thing. It's a geographic thing. It would have happened no matter who won the office. But with Trump it's happening faster. When we leave the world stage, the world will go back to doing what it did before we showed up to save them in the war. Namely, fighting over breadcrumbs. No other navy on the planet has the ability to protect the world's shipping lanes, much less the motivation to do so. At current build out rates, the rest of the world's naval forces combined won't catch up with the US until 2263. China doesn't even have a blue water navy, meaning they can't operate long term outside of China's sphere of influence. If we stop protecting the ships that China relies on for food, and for oil, and for sending us trillions of dollars worth of dildos and $30 microwaves that break two months after purchase, their economy, government, and nation collapses. This is even assuming the Iranians don't initiate a war with the Saudis over control of the oil production infrastructure. Which they will if we aren't there to intervene.

What's more: The US is the largest and wealthiest consumer import market on the planet, and since the Europeans forgot how to have babies back in the 70s, we'll remain so for decades to come. China NEEDS us to buy whatever they can sell, because they simply don't have any other customers who can buy as much as we do. And the money they do get from us is leveraged into shadow loans handed out by the Chinese banks to anyone who can promise employment. Not profit, and not a working product. Employment. Because if people have jobs, they're less likely to march into the capital and hang their politicians. Remember the Obama stimulus package? Eight hundred billion dollars, and all the corruption and wasteful spending that goes along with that kind of top down spending? The Chinese government loans out that much money every 17 days. And even that doesn’t work anymore. The average hourly wage in China has octupled in the past decade. They’re two times as expensive as Mexico now. It’s no wonder factories are reshoring to the US and Mexico. They know the end is coming. The smart money is already out of the country. They're just trying to make it end in a way that their country doesn't implode.

They only beat us on trade the past few decades because we let them. We're not letting them any more. Globalization is over. Free trade is over. The rest of the world riding on America's back is over. Atlas is shrugging. And to any Europeans here, I'm not trying to be mean, I don't have anything against you. But you can't expect a free ride to last forever. And you guys really, really shouldn't have stopped having kids. Once your boomer equivalents retire and you don't have the tax base to pay for their benefits or the young consumers to drive the economy, you're looking at decades of stagnation, spending cuts, and tax increases. Incidentally, this is why the EU is importing migrants as fast as they possibly can.

There is, however, one H U G E  problem facing the United States: Cash payments to people who produce nothing.

Welfare, Food Stamps, Section 8 Housing, Electric/Utility Subsidies, Social Security, Medicare and healthcare for the poor called Medicaid.   The spending on these programs has wiped-out the country's finances.  As I write, we are $21 TRILLION in debt, with no sign of those payments stopping.  This spending is unsustainable; the country simply cannot continue this spending -  it's a mathematical certainty.

But the people receiving this money and these benefits would rise-up in outrage if the cash/benefits were cut or stopped.  They would oust every member of Congress and state governments as retaliation for cutting-off the cash . . . and may even openly revolt with violence over it.

So . . . . . what to do?

Government can't keep spending the way it is, but they can't cut the spending for fear of violent revolt.

It seems an impossible quandary; but government figured out a solution: WAR.

If the US can get into a  M A J O R war - perhaps even a short nuclear war -- the fighting would kill-off large numbers of these cash hand-out recipients!

If the cash handout recipients are DEAD, they don't have to get paid anymore ! ! ! ! 

That's why we see the US picking a fight with both Russia and now, China.  The government NEEDS a big war to kill-off the "useless eaters."

Now, in a big war, what are the first big targets?   Cities.

And where are the largest numbers of people getting free cash handouts and benefits?  Cities!

So if we start a war which gets several large cities nuked, the number of people paid by government drops suddenly and dramatically. Even better, with so many cities smashed to hell, the government can turn to creditors and say "Sorry, we can't pay you back the $21 TRILLION - we have no hope of doing it, so write-off all that debt!  The Creditors would have no choice.  Problem solved.

You folks who are on welfare and the like, and who live in major cities, should prepare for YOUR end.  Your government has to kill you because they can't afford to pay for you to live and eat on their money anymore.

Oh, By the way, if war can't be concocted, no problem: a Biological disease "outbreak" will do the job just as well. And where would a biological disease outbreak spread the fastest and kill the most?  Yep: Cities.  

Problem solved anyway. . . . and without the radiation from a nuke war, but there's still the nagging problem of that $21 Trillion dollars debt.  Oh well, hit the Bankers with the Biological Disease outbreak too, they'll get the message fast enough.  Problem solved.

 

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