Jet fuel in Europe just crossed 100% above pre-war prices. $200 per barrel. In Northwest Europe. In Singapore.
Here's what happens next - step by step:
Step 1: Fuel costs double
Airlines now pay double for every gallon they burn.
Step 2: Airlines have no hedge
They dropped fuel hedging in 2024-2025. Zero insurance. Fully exposed.
Step 3: Fares spike immediately
JetBlue already raised bag fees. Fuel surcharges added across the board. Thousands of flights are being cut.
Step 4: Cargo slows
Air freight costs double → manufacturers delay shipments → supply chains strain.
Step 5: Longer routes = more fuel
Iran/Gulf airspace is closed. Airlines fly around it. More hours in the air. More fuel burned. More cost.
Step 6: Record profits evaporate
The aviation industry was headed for a $41 billion profit year. United's CEO is now modeling $175/barrel oil through 2027.
Step 7: You pay the bill
Not the politicians. Not the generals. YOU. At every airport gate. On every booking screen.
THE MATH:
Oil shock → +100% jet fuel → higher fares + fewer flights → aviation crisis → global trade disruption
This is not speculation. This is 1973 (Arab Oil Embargo) happening again.
In 1973, Arab oil ministers quadrupled prices in 48 hours. The world economy took YEARS to recover.
Same region. Same choke point. Same lesson. 53 years and we're right back here.
Experts say prices stay elevated for MONTHS — even if the war de-escalates tomorrow.
So ask yourself the question that nobody in power wants to answer: Was this war worth it?
