As January 1 arrived in Beijing, a new law requiring and export License to ship Silver, came into effect in China. This affects a full seventy percent (70%) of Global refined Silver.
The next 72 hours will define the future of silver. As the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) (i.e. COMEX) paper games collapses under the weight of physical reality, I anticipate:
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A violent rebound in silver prices as the market recognizes the true scarcity.
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A physical default scenario, or extreme delivery delays on the COMEX.
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Explosive gains in unhedged, high-quality silver mining and royalty companies as their asset values re-rate to true physical prices.
CME TALKS "FORCE MAJEURE"
CME Group issued a temporary rule change regarding force majeure conditions on December 30, 2025, to address specific market disruptions. This change is part of their ongoing efforts to manage trading conditions effectively.
From fxnewsgroup.com and cmegroup.com
Temporary Rule Change for Force Majeure Conditions
Overview of the Rule Change
On December 30, 2025, CME Group announced a temporary rule change regarding force majeure conditions. This change is significant for market participants as it addresses unforeseen circumstances that may disrupt trading activities.
Key Details
• Purpose: The rule change aims to provide clarity and guidance on how force majeure events are handled, ensuring that all market participants understand their rights and obligations during such events.
• Scope: The temporary rules apply to various contracts traded on CME Group's platforms, impacting both futures and options markets.
• Implementation: The changes are effective immediately and will remain in place until further notice, allowing for flexibility in response to ongoing market conditions.
Implications for Traders
• Risk Management: Traders should review their risk management strategies in light of these changes, as they may affect contract performance and settlement processes.
• Compliance: It is essential for all participants to stay informed about the specifics of the rule change to ensure compliance and avoid potential penalties.
This temporary adjustment reflects CME Group's commitment to maintaining market integrity and providing a clear framework for handling unexpected disruptions.
What is Force Majeure?
Force majeure (French for "superior force") refers to unforeseeable, uncontrollable events (like natural disasters, wars, pandemics, or strikes) that prevent parties from fulfilling contractual obligations, allowing them to be excused from liability under a contract clause that specifically lists or covers such events, allocating risk for disruptions beyond normal business control.
Key Aspects:
Unforeseeable & Uncontrollable: The event must be beyond reasonable anticipation and control of the parties involved.
Contractual Clause: It's usually a specific provision in a contract, defining what events qualify (e.g., flood, fire, pandemic, acts of government) and the consequences.
Excuse for Non-Performance: It frees parties from liability for failing to meet obligations due to these extraordinary circumstances.
Distinction from "Act of God": While related, "acts of God" typically refer to purely natural events, whereas force majeure can also cover man-made disasters like riots or strikes.
Hal Turner Personal Opinion
It seems to me, just my opinion, that the CME talking "force majeure" means they already know what is coming and there is no way to head it off. I personally believe - again just my opinion -- we are about to witness carnage in the financial markets, the likes of which have never been seen before. Have cash money in your possession just in case.
