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In what I personally think is a disastrous decision that will lead to catastrophic losses I can report right now:
The Trump Administration has made "detailed preparations" for deploying US ground forces into Iran.
Details include:
- Senior military commanders have sent Trump specific requests aimed at preparing for a ground invasion.
- Trump has been "deliberating" whether to position ground forces in the region.
- The US has held meetings to prepare for how to handle the "possible detention of Iranian soldiers and paramilitary operatives" in a ground invasion.
- The US is preparing to deploy elements of the 82nd Airborne Division into the Middle East region.
I think this would be the worst decision made by the United States since Vietnam.
Think Vietnam+Afghanistan . . . maybe to be called Vietnamistan???
In my personal view, this will prove to be a cataclysm.
This is the most significant military escalation signal of the entire war and it requires precise reading.
The 82nd Airborne is not an amphibious assault force. It is not designed to seize islands. It is a rapid deployment division specifically built for one purpose. Getting large numbers of light infantry combat troops into a theater fast, by air, without requiring a port or beach landing.
The 82nd can drop thousands of paratroopers anywhere on earth within 18 hours of notification. Its deployment to the Middle East signals that Washington is preparing for a ground operation that goes beyond what 2,200 Marines on an amphibious assault ship can accomplish.
Combined with what was already known, the USS Tripoli ARG arriving days, two additional Marine expeditionary units en route, A-10 Warthogs and Apaches already deployed, the Axios report this morning about Kharg Island seizure planning, the picture assembles itself.
The detention planning detail is the most analytically revealing element. You do not hold meetings about how to process Iranian prisoners of war unless you are planning an operation in which Iranian soldiers will be captured. That is not an air campaign. That is not a naval blockade. That is ground combat on Iranian controlled territory.
The political contradiction this creates is acute. Trump said this morning he is not putting troops in Iran. Netanyahu said yesterday a revolution requires a ground component. Senior military commanders are sending Trump specific requests for ground force positioning. The 82nd Airborne is being prepared for deployment.
Someone is going to have to reconcile those positions publicly very soon.
The most dangerous element of this development is not the operational risk, which is severe. It is the timeline compression. The Axios report said they need a month to further degrade Iranian capabilities before any ground move. The 82nd Airborne deployment preparation suggests that month may have already started without a public announcement of the decision.
Trump said this war would last four to six weeks. Week three ended today. Week four begins tomorrow with ground invasion preparations???
The weekend ahead is not just busy. It may be the pivot point this war has been building toward since February 28.
