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Iran has finalized a detailed nuclear deal proposal, approved by senior leaders, to present to the United States at a meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, on Thursday.
According to Covert Intelligence Sources (2) the terms are as follows:
- Iran is willing to reduce uranium enrichment from 60% to about 3.6%, similar to the 2015 nuclear deal.
- For the current deal, Iran proposes suspending future enrichment for 7 years; the U.S. is pushing for 10, and the matter is still under negotiation.
The main dispute is Iran’s existing stockpile of hundreds of kilograms of fissile material. Tehran refuses to ship it abroad, offering only to dilute it, while Washington demands its removal.
4:09 PM EST -- Chairman of Iran's Defense Council : Iran will consider any attack by the United States, no matter how small, as the initiation of an all-out war, and the response will be according to that.
Hal Turner Analysis and Opinion
Geneva on Thursday is not a negotiation; It is a sentencing hearing.
The defendant has been offered a plea deal.
The evidence has been presented.
The military architecture is the prosecution’s case.
The F-22s are the exhibit.
The Aircraft carriers are the verdict and Sentence waiting to be imposed.
Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi says a deal is “within reach.” Let me show you what is within reach right now.
- 11 F-22 Raptors on Israeli tarmac since yesterday.
- Two carrier strike groups converging with 150-plus aircraft.
- 500-plus combat aircraft in theater.
- 700 tons of munitions pre-positioned via C-17.
- Every warship cleared from Bahrain.
- A P-8A submarine hunter circling the Strait of Hormuz.
- 40 aerial refueling tankers staged for sustained operations.
- Turkey planning border incursions for the day after.
- Khamenei’s shadow government activated.
- China selling Iran supersonic anti-ship missiles.
- Modi in Jerusalem signing $8.6 billion in defense deals including Iron Dome technology transfer.
- India telling its citizens to leave Iran immediately.
- Germany advising nationals in Israel to prepare for airspace closures.
- The US Embassy in Beirut evacuating.
That is what is within reach.
Iran’s Foreign Minister is boarding a plane to Geneva saying diplomacy can solve this. He said the same thing before Midnight Hammer in June. Twelve hours before B-2s hit Fordow, Iranian diplomats were discussing enrichment percentages in back channels. The bombs did not wait for the talking to finish.
Here is the detail everyone is missing in the optimism.
Trump said today his “preference” is diplomacy. Preference. Not commitment. Not policy. Not red line.
He used the word preference the way you use it when you have already decided what happens if the preference is not met.
Witkoff already told you Iran is one week from bomb material.
Araghchi already confirmed Iran will never accept zero enrichment.
Trump already said zero enrichment is the only acceptable outcome.
Those three statements cannot coexist. One of them breaks by Tomorrow.
Iran is arriving in Geneva with a proposal to export some enriched uranium while retaining enrichment rights. Washington’s position is zero enrichment, full stop.
The gap between “some” and “zero” is not a negotiation. It is the distance between a deal and a target list.
And here is the part the Stock and Bond Markets have not processed: The second carrier, the Ford, is arriving in theater as the talks begin.
You do not time a carrier strike group’s arrival to coincide with negotiations unless the carrier is the negotiation.
Its presence at the table is the argument Washington is making without saying a word.
The appearance to most observers seems to be the US saying Agree to our terms, or the platform delivering the consequences is already in position.
Trump told CNBC today that “Iran wants a deal more than we do.” That framing is not diplomatic. That is a man holding leverage and letting the other side know he knows it.
When the party with 500 aircraft tells the party with a collapsing currency that they want the deal more, it is not an observation. It is a final offer.
Geneva on Thursday is not a negotiation. It is a sentencing hearing where the defendant has been offered a plea deal. The evidence has been presented. The military architecture is the prosecution’s case. The F-22s are the exhibit. The carriers are the verdict waiting to be read.
Araghchi can accept the terms or reject them. If he accepts, the carriers go home and the market prices out $10 of risk premium overnight. If he rejects, the carriers do not go home. They do what carriers do.
The preference has been stated. The alternative has been staged. And the clock that started on February 19 does not pause because someone boarded a plane to Geneva.
Within reach. Yes. But what is within reach depends entirely on which hand you are watching.
Sometimes, a seemingly totally unrelated item pops-up, and it lets everyone know how things are __actually__ going. That happened. Today.
Saudi Arabia increased its Oil Production to max capacity today "In case negotiations fail and a conflict begins which might affect global oil availability should Iran no longer be selling oil."
No one in their right mind increases an entire nation's oil output "in case . . . ." They do it because they are told it will be needed. Saudi Arabia increasing its output is the indication to me, "war. Tomorrow." Full stop.
