Iran and the United States were conducting indirect talks in Geneva Switzerland today, but things are too quiet.
The talks are viewed as a last chance for diplomacy, as America has gathered a fleet of aircraft and warships to the Middle East to pressure Tehran into a deal.
U.S. special Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff is passing messages with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in an effort to convince his country to halt its enrichment of uranium, a key step to building a nuclear bomb, and curtail or stop its production of long-range missiles. The president’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is also in attendance.
The talks lasted some three hours before the American delegation left the site. Iranian state television reported that the talks would resume after a break.
UPDATE 11:56 AM EST --
I have just confirmed that the talks WILL RESUME at 12:30 PM eastern US time, which is 16:30 UTC.
MORE:
14 more F-35 Fighter Jets were ordered to take-off from Hill Air Force Base in Utah, to head to Europe/Middle East, shortly after the initial Break of the Geneva Talks. It seems to many observers that if the talks were going well, there would be no reason to send even more Fighter Jets.
EVEN MORE:
The USS Gerald R. Ford has departed the US Naval Base in Souda Bay, Greece and is heading east in the Mediterranean Sea.
12:17 PM EST --
This Just in from Iran:
High-ranking Iranian official, responding via Al Jazeera to misleading American leaks:
Our proposal emphasizes that our uranium enrichment is a sovereign right and offers a temporary freeze on enrichment for a limited period.
Our proposal for a solution in Geneva does not include any ideas regarding our missile systems and defense programs.
The principle of zero enrichment forever, dismantling nuclear facilities, and transferring the uranium stockpile is completely rejected.
12:32 PM EST -- President Trump will gather all the Principals in the White House at 3:00 PM tomorrow, Friday 27 February 2026.
1:33 PM EST -- The Foreign Minister of Oman has announced "We have finished the day after significant progress in the negotiation between the United States and Iran. We will resume soon after consultation in the respective capitals. Discussions on a technical level will take place next week in Vienna. I am grateful to all concerned for their efforts: the negotiators, the IAEA, and our hosts the Swiss government."
1:36 PM EST -- Confirmed reports "The American delegation is leaving the talks"
2:45 PM EST -- Information is starting to come out from this afternoon's round of talks.
“No deal without full sanctions relief.” Tehran says all U.S. sanctions and U.N. Security Council resolutions must end, and insists no nuclear sites or equipment will be dismantled since they are registered and monitored by the Atomic Energy Agency.
ANALYSIS
Since the Iranians understand that parts of their nuclear program will be damaged anyway—whether through concessions in negotiations or through a military strike—they are betting on a limited American attack.
To the West, negotiations seem preferable, but in Tehran they calculate that a U.S. strike would be short-lived (a week or two at most). It would cause significant destruction to their facilities, but as long as the regime survives, the outcome after the attack stops would actually improve their position: the immediate military threat would be removed.
In their view, once they have weathered the strike and demonstrated resilience, they would emerge in a stronger bargaining position for future talks—after the United States halts the operation due to domestic and international pressures.
This fits perfectly with their asymmetric logic and long-term horizon: absorb a tactical blow in order to gain a strategic advantage over time, while betting that the West will not go all the way to full regime change.
In the current context (February 2026), with the Trump ultimatum, massive U.S. military buildup, and ongoing Geneva talks, this is exactly the gamble they appear to be making—rejecting capitulation and preparing the narrative of victorious resistance.
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