Reports say that there are signs Israel is preparing to attack Iran. Today, it was announced the government will call-up 280,000 Reserve IDF Troops.
Earlier today Flight safety NOTICE TO AIRMEN (NOTAMs) indicated a sudden and complete shutdown of strategic radar systems in Shiraz. Military observers describe the disruption as the first electronic shot, designed to create a temporary gap in Iran’s integrated air defense network rather than a technical malfunction.
I am also told "Same exact thing happened in Isfahan today." I am endeavoring to confirm this.
If this turns out to be true, then these crippling of radar installations is -- in and of themselves -- an "attack" upon Iran, for which they can launch against Israel.
For What It's Worth (FWIW) Several airlines (Air France, British Airways, and Dutch KLM) have suddenly canceled their flights to multiple areas in the Middle East. Apparently they believe -- or have been warned -- something is brewing behind the scenes.
Theory/analysis of the US build-up in Iran:
- Strike likely any time from tomorrow onwards.
- Probably on a weekend as any other time would have a major impact on markets.
- US CENTCOM Commander will be meeting with the Israelis in the next 12hrs (UPDATE: CENTCOM commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, has landed in Israel AS OF ABOUT 4:00 PM EST)
- Abe Lincoln Carrier Strike Group (CSG) should be within range of Iran now, but definitely will be within 24hrs.
- Israelis and Qataris on high defensive alert.
- Airlines in Europe starting to cancel flights to the region again this evening
- 24 KC-135 and KC-46 tankers at 2 bases in the area.
- Assets in UK that could be surged forward if required and wouldn't need long to move (F-35s at Lakenheath, more KC-135s at Mildenhall).
- Potential for a mainland US launch of bombers (like MIDNIGHT HAMMER but with key differences - see below*)
- Potential Israeli Air Force assistance with strikes if they deem the plan has a good chance of toppling the Iranian terrorism-sponsoring regime (up to 48 F-35I plus dozens of F-16I, F-15I and other jets) (notably Israel has AWACS and ISR platforms in the area, something the US hasn't moved in yet (if you ignore the E-2s and EA-18Gs in CSG-3).
- Up to 8 RAF Typhoons in Qatar/Saudi for defensive Ops, plus more at Akrotiri in case of a need to assist with air defence for allies in the area again.
*Note about a bomber mission:
- B-2s could be used again, especially if air defenses expected to be an issue
- 4 tankers flew to Moron Air Base in Spain this week which could be for a refuel point, and 4 more are at Prince Sultan in Saudi Arabia which could fly up to the Mediterranean
- MIDNIGHT HAMMER required refueling of the B-2s off
- 1) US East Coast,
- 2) near entry to Mediterranean and
- 3) near Cyprus/Israel
The difference this time is that they're unlikely to be carrying a heavy payload of GBU-57 MOPs, so the fuel burn is likely to be lower and refueling needs likely reduced.
- Currently rumors of a planned bomber deployment to the Pacific which may occur at the same time to divert attention again (like they did last time!)
The number of tankers at Al-Udeid (20 or more) suggests an expectation for possible sustained operations over several days for the 37 F-15Es in Jordan.
There also remain a number of C-130J and C-17A aircraft at various Middle East bases presently which I would anticipate either departing before strikes begin or being on standby to evacuate people if required.
