Medical personnel at Jerusalem's primary hospital in Israel have received directives to convert the subterranean parking facility into an emergency medical ward.
The Pentagon has reportedly evacuated hundreds of U.S. soldier's families and other "non-essential" people from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar and from bases in Bahrain, including the Fifth Fleet headquarters, as part of defensive measures against potential retaliatory attacks by Iran.
A well-placed U.S. official denies reports that the U.S. has evacuated “hundreds” of troops from Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, and says bases in Bahrain, home to the U.S. 5th Fleet, have not been evacuated either.
A significant number US military assets have been relocated from al-Udeid Air Base, Qatar, and al-Dhafra Air Base, the UAE, to positions further west in the Middle East. The relocations were not broadcast, with no data picked up on ADS-B or ACARS but eye-witnesses confirm the large movement of assets.
According to Israeli media citing military sources, Iran is reportedly planning to strike Israel before Tel Aviv can launch an attack on Tehran.
Japan and France are also calling on their citizens to immediately leave Iran. Japan is asking its citizens to leave Israel as well.
The Bahraini Minister of Defense stated that "an attack on our nation would not be met with silence." US Forces are at bases in that country.
The Serbian Ministry of Foreign Affairs has advised its citizens to depart Iran as soon as possible.
US - IRAN NEGOTIATIONS
Second round of indirect nuclear negotiations ended. Both sides say progress was made and agreed on a set of “guiding principles,” but no final deal was reached. Iran is expected to submit a written proposal to address gaps, and future talks are planned. Tensions remain high with U.S. military buildup and Iran’s naval drills nearby.
US SPECIAL ENVOY STEVE WITKOFF REJECTED IRAN'S PROPOSAL FOR 3-YEAR ENRICHMENT HALT, AND A PLEDGE NOT TO STRIKE ISRAEL
Witkoff allegedly refused to even negotiate further on the offer.
The proposal reportedly included:
- halt enrichment for three years, then cap at 3.67%.
- Dilute existing uranium under U.S. supervision or ship it to Russia.
- Keep ballistic missiles but only for defense.
- Stop publicly questioning Israel's right to exist.
- End military support for Palestinian groups.
- And a 5% commission to the U.S. on oil sales through Swiss mediation.
That's a lot more than Tehran has ever put on paper.
Washington said it wasn't close to enough.
According to intelligence Israel received yesterday evening, Iran is more than likely still planning revenge against Israel for the events of the 12 day war back in June, an Israeli security official tells Belaaz.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu spoke with President Trump and shared this sensitive intelligence. Israel belIeves U.S. military pressure on Iran could push Tehran to launch an attack on Israel.
- "Israel is fully prepared for an unprecedented preemptive strike on Iran, including the elimination of its top political and security leadership, destruction of oil fields, and key strategic economic assets", the source added.
ANALYSIS
"The Great Exodus" Begins... Japan and the West Order Immediate Evacuation... Washington Mobilizes 15% of its Global "Tanker" Fleet to Launch War. — Talal Nahle
The time for veiled warnings is over. When Japan (the most cautious of nations) declares Danger Level 4 ("Immediate Evacuation") and warns its citizens to stay away from American bases because they will be bombed, it means the intelligence is confirmed: War will start within hours or a few days.
Militarily, Washington has completed the "Great Fuel Bridge" by deploying 58 aerial refueling tankers to Europe (15% of its global fleet). They are awaiting the conclusion of the crew rest period for the "Raptor" (F-22) pilots tomorrow, Saturday, to execute the strike, or arguably waiting for the arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford on February 27.
First: NOTAMs (Active Now - Feb 20/21)... "Protecting the Rear"
Based on the attached file, Iran is maintaining a "live-fire alert" status in sensitive areas during this weekend:
* The Northwest (B0106/26):
* Status: Active until February 23.
* Location: (36N 049E) - near Rasht and the Caspian Sea.
* Objective: To protect the Russian supply line, secure the airspace for any cargo planes landing from the north, and prevent any aerial infiltration from the direction of Azerbaijan.
* The East (B0072/26):
* Status: Active until February 23.
* Objective: To protect the eastern borders (Zahedan) and air defense platforms located there.
Second: The "Tanker Armada"... 15% of the Global Fleet!
The figures released tonight are terrifying and reveal the scale of the air campaign:
* Air Buildup: 265 cargo flights (C-17/C-5) since mid-January.
* Fuel Fleet: Deployment of 58 tankers (KC-135/KC-46) to Europe and the Middle East in just 4 days.
* Locations: Lajes (15), Rota (15), Chania (10), Sofia (8), and Morón (5).
* Strategic Significance: This massive mobilization is not merely to support fighters in Jordan, but to support strategic bombers (B-2/B-52) that will launch either from the US (CONUS) or European bases (such as Fairford, if permitted), to bomb Iran and return without landing. Washington is preparing to "burn the skies" for consecutive days.
Third: The Japanese Warning... "Stay Away from US Bases"
* Level 4 (Critical): Japan orders its nationals to leave "immediately and by any means" before airspace closes.
* Specific Warning: "Avoid approaching US military facilities."
* Meaning: Tokyo has received precise intelligence that Iran will retaliate by striking US bases in the region immediately upon being attacked. This is an implicit admission that these bases are no longer safe.
Fourth: The Timing Dilemma... "Saturday" or "Next Friday"?
We are facing two options for "Zero Hour":
* The Urgent Option (This Weekend - Feb 21/22):
* Catalyst: The completion of crew rest for the 12 F-22 crews in the UK tomorrow, Saturday (Feb 21). Once they take off for the Middle East, the air force is ready.
* Motive: To exploit the element of surprise (countering the assumption that Iran has a 10-day window).
* The Integrated Option (Friday, Feb 27):
* Catalyst: Awaiting the arrival of the aircraft carrier (USS Gerald R. Ford) to the Eastern Mediterranean (requires 5 days).
* Motive: To provide greater fire cover and offensive density.
Conclusion and Final Assessment:
We are currently in the "Dead Zone":
* Diplomatically: The world is fleeing Iran.
* Militarily: The "Raptors" move tomorrow, and the tankers are ready to refuel the bombers.
* Regarding Iran: NOTAMs are protecting the "Russian Route," and missiles are aimed at US bases (as warned by Japan).
The Result:
The warning from Japan and the coalition of 16 nations for immediate evacuation is the "final alarm bell." The war will begin with a crushing airstrike (led by F-22s and B-2s), and the Iranian response will set US bases in the region ablaze. If the F-22s take off from Britain tomorrow, the war will begin Saturday night/Sunday.
