JP Morgan Energy Analysts created a transit map showing the flows of Persian Gulf Oil (from all nations) and when those flows would all be delivered based on transit times. With the Persian Gulf now closed, the end of the final deliveries begins April 1.
The JP Morgan map shows a hypothetical Strait of Hormuz closure scenario, tracking Persian Gulf oil shipments (red lines, volumes in million barrels per day (MBD)) and when "most deliveries stop" by region based on sailing times:
Asia ~Apr 1 (China/India/Japan hit hardest, 5+ mbd exposed),
Europe ~Apr 10,
North America ~Apr 15,
Australia ~Apr 20.
Global read: Instant worldwide price spike from risk premium + fear, but physical shortages roll out unevenly—Asia faces acute crunch first (economic drag on importers), giving US/EU slight buffer via Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR')s or reroutes.
This outage of oil flow forces rapid de-escalation or alternative supply pivots (US shale/Russia). But Russia just announced a complete export HALT to gasoline supplies!
This is now a very High-stakes test of who yields in any Iran-related conflict.
With the real-life Persian Gulf Closure upon us, the world is now facing the actual stoppage of commerce due to lack of fuel. Some countries will even begin to see electric power outages because power plants run out of fuel to run them.
No electric means no commerce. No commerce means no economy. No economy means no jobs. No jobs means no money. No money equals everything collapses. The whole global economic system just stops. People starve.
(HT Remark: I earnestly hope you're taking my advice and stocking-up on emergency food, water, medicines you need to live on. An Emergency generator for electric to keep your refrigerator running and a light or two in the house. Fuel for that generator. Communications Gear like CB or HAM radio to communicate. A portable AM/FM/Shortwave radio with batteries to get news and information. A First-Aid Kit for wounds or injuries. Flashlights either in each room of your house, or one for each family member. Spare batteries for those flashlights. A way to cook without grid power.)
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