A document leaked from the American Hospital Association provides medical professionals' "Best Guess" for the situation with the new coronavirus outbreak, and the "Guess" is utterly horrifying:
In the next TWO MONTHS:
1,900,000 ICU admissions
vs flu in 2019:
49,000 ICU admissions
This "Guess" treats the numbers very optimistically. For instance, the "1,900,000 ICU admissions" ignores the fact that in the USA, we do not have 1.9 million ICU beds. Even if we did, more than 60% of them are always occupied by folks with other issues: Heart problems, cancer, Diabetes, accidents, and the like.
That said, it is not far-fetched to "guess" that most or all of those "ICU admissions" will actually be dead.
Further, the R0 this "guess uses" is way too optimistic. The actual R0 is closer to 4.7, meaning the average infected person is likely to infect 4.7 other people, NOT the 2.5 used for the "Guess." So doubling the numbers in the "Guess" would be completely reasonable.
This coronavirus outbreak is the worst public health disaster humanity has encountered in more than 100 years. Even during the 1918 Spanish Flu, which killed fifty million worldwide, humanity did not see the virulent infectiousness that THIS new coronavirus has. We're in historic times right now, and a LOT of people are going to be killed by this disease.
If it was "just a flu" we would likely see 34,200 deaths. We will see orders of magnitude worse . . . in the next two months.
The ADAMS pandemic model, Revision 1, using data up to March 5, 2020 to calibrate projections. Geographic scope is the United States of America only (doesn’t include Canada):
By April 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
8,645 actively infected and transmitting on this day
580 cumulative dead since day one, with 58 deaths on this day
5,432 cumulative recovered since day one
By May 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
122,529 actively infected and transmitting on this day
10,432 cumulative dead since day one, with 910 deaths on this day
85,332 cumulative recovered since day one
By June 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
1.7 million actively infected and transmitting on this day
153,000 cumulative dead since day one, with 12,960 deaths on this day
1.2 million cumulative recovered since day one
By July 4th, 2020, if no travel restrictions are put in place:
24.3 million actively infected and transmitting on this day
2.16 million cumulative dead since day one, with 183,000 deaths on this day
17.1 million cumulative recovered since day one
Of course, none of these models includes the utter INCOMPETENCE of entities like Department of Homeland Security (DHS) and the Centers for Disease Control CDC). Here we are, on Saturday, March 7. The first case of this deadly new virus arrived in the USA about two months ago and as of today:
Arkansas can only test five patients for Coronavirus per day.
Maine can't test any yet.
Washington State has a backlog of tests it hasn't gotten through.
The Allen County, Indiana Department of Health recently uploaded the following presentation to it's website:
It contains the following facts as they were presented to the health department, local hospitals...
For the 20% that becomes seriously ill, intubation about day 8.
Ventilator support for about 2 weeks and death occurs in 10% of those admitted about post admission day 21.
Presuming USA pop us about 350 mill, that would be 8 million deaths
100% of the population of the world will, in time, become infected
The elderly will suffer disproportionately
There will NOT be significant seasonality
40% of staff will abandon post—most due to child care issues.
U.S. STATUS MARCH 7,2020, 4:25 AM EST --
YESTERDAY 06 March 2020
98 new cases and 3 new deaths in the United States, including:
- 1 new case in Rhode Island (third in the state): a female in her 60s, now at home with mild symptoms. who had direct, face-to-face contact with a confirmed case in New York in late February
- 1st case in Nebraska: a woman in her 30s from Douglas county who recently returned from England at the end of February. She started experiencing symptoms and was hospitalized at Methodist Hospital on March 5
- 1st case in Connecticut: a nurse at Danbury Hospital
- 9 new cases and 3 new deaths in Washington state
- 1st case in Oklahoma: a man in his 50s resident in Tulsa County
- 11 new cases in Calfornia:
- 4 in Santa Clara County
- 3 in Contra Costa County
- 1 in Yolo County
- 3 in Placer County who had traveled on the Grand Princess cruise ship from San Francisco to Mexico Feb. 11-21. Two had mild symptoms that have already resolved; the third currently has mild symptoms. All three are isolated at home and none required hospitalization.
- 21 on the Grand Princess cruise ship off California
- 1st case in Kentucky, Lexington
- 3 in Colorado: 2 residents of Denver and of Colorado Springs: a man in his 40s who had traveled recently to California
- 1st case in Minnesota: an elderly person who had traveled on a cruise ship that had a confirmed case
- 1 in Nevada: the case has a family member who is a student at Huffaker Elementary School in Reno, which has been closed "out of an abundance of caution"
- 1 in Massachusetts: a parent in Wellesley with children in the Upham and Wellesley middle schools, were students were dismissed early in order to fully clean and sanitize the buildings
- 1 in Georgia
- 1 in Indiana (1st in the state): an adult from Marion County who had traveled to Boston recently and had been at an event (Cambridge-based Biogen’s Boston conference) where other people have also tested positive. They returned to Indiana on Wednesday, March 4.
- 1 in North Carolina (Chatham County): a man who had recently returned from Italy
- 2 in Pennsylvania (1st in the state)
- 22 in New York state
- 8 in Westchester County
- 3 in Nassau County
- 11 connected to the original New Rochelle case
- first 2 cases in Colorado (Summit County): 1 is a 30-year old man who had traveled to Italy in February and was in contact with a confirmed case outside of Colorado.
- first 3 cases in Maryland (Montgomery County): they had all recently traveled overseas
TODAY 07 March 2020
16 new cases and 2 new deaths in the United States:
- 2 new deaths and 3 new cases in Florida (first deaths on the east coast)
- 1 new case in California (Alameda County): a former passenger on the now-quarantined Grand Princess cruise ship, an older adult who has underlying health conditions and is currently hospitalized. Alameda County’s Public Health Department is urging all residents who were on the Grand Princess cruise from Feb. 11 to Feb. 21 to get tested if they are experiencing any symptoms
- 1st 2 cases in South Carolina: an elderly woman in Kershaw County and an adult woman from Charleston County
- 1 new case in Illinois: a woman in her 50s who works as an aide at a Chicago high school
- 1st case in Utah: the patient was a passenger of the Grand Princess cruise ship .
- 6 new cases in Colorado
- 1st case in Hawaii: a former passenger of the Grand Princess cruise ship
- 1 in New Jersey: a male in his 50s hospitalized at Englewood Hospital and Medical Center in Bergen County
- 1st case in Clark County, Washington
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