A very significant earthquake swarm is taking place on an island off the west coast of Africa. This particular situation has been feared for decades because it could literally wipe out the ENTIRE U.S. East Coast.
8:58 AM Monday 9/20 Click Here
10:08 PM EDT UPDATE CLICK HERE
FLASH TRAFFIC: Report "Eruption in Progress" Lava Breached Surface, Fires starting 10:56 AM EDT Sunday
The island of La Palma is part of the Canary Islands off the northwest coast of Africa. The scalable Google Map below shows its location:
The island was formed by eruptions from the Cumbre Vieja volcano.
La Palma earned the nickname “the beautiful island” — white sand beaches highlighted by black volcanic soil. An endless night sky filled with stars as far as the eye can see.
But beauty here is only skin deep.
Nestled on the western side of La Palma sits the Cumbre Vieja volcano, like a pot of water waiting to boil over. Its last big eruption was more than 50 years ago, but everyone knows it’s only a matter of time before it unleashes the beast inside.
Over decades, the entire southwest third of the island has become eroded and unstable from volcanic eruptions; with scientists fearing it could break loose and slide into the Atlantic Ocean. If that took place, the slide would be about 500 cubic KILOMOTERS of dirt and rock, plopping into the ocean, which would trigger a Tsunami wave for the entire Atlantic Ocean.
It starts with tremors - exactly like what we're seeing right now. Glasses rattle on kitchen tables while picture frames skew left and right. Tourists to La Palma brush it off, calling the jelly feeling “sea legs” — they are, after all, on an island.
But the locals know better and they hold their breath. When it does happen, the ash and lava spill out of the volcano’s mouth like a giant sigh. No one could have predicted what happens next.
The western side of the volcano cracks and splits; the steam builds up inside and pushes against the volcano’s walls. The pressure is too much; the entire western flank breaks off, the Atlantic Ocean eagerly swallowing every rock, stone and pebble as they freefall into its deep blue depths. The earth rumbles and the water begins to slosh around as its calm ebb and flow turns into frenzied splashing and crashing.
The waves grow. And they grow and they grow. To the naked eye, it looks like the heavens unleashed a curtain made of water — somehow the volcano’s landslide has produced a tsunami that reaches the sky.
All 3,000 feet of water roars as it barrels away from La Palma’s coast toward the United States. As the most western island of the Canary Islands, La Palma sits eight hours away from the eastern U.S. shore by plane. It’s the one piece of good news: Residents have a window of time to evacuate.
But chaos breeds chaos, and soon the highways are clogged with cars, frightened families from Boston to Miami trying to flee inland. A final silver lining: The wave decreases as it sojourns across the Atlantic from a staggering 3,000 to a mere 160 feet.
As that wave travels from Africa to the west, it would move about as fast as a jet airliner, about 500 MPH. About eight hours later, that wave would reach the North American coast line and begin to pile up on top of itself, creating upwards of a ONE HUNDRED TWENTY FOOT TALL wall of water, smashing into the ENTIRE east coast.
All the major cities would be wiped out. Boston, New York, Baltimore, Washington, DC, Norfolk, VA, Charleston, SC, Jacksonville, FL, Miami, would all be inundated by a giant wall of water. Most buildings within ten miles of the coast would be physically knocked down by the wave. Almost nothing would survive. (Story continues beneath Ad)
Now, one might think 'We'll have 8 hours warning." Do you have any idea at all how long it would take to completely evacuate cities like Boston, New York or Miami? And Miami is of particular concern because there may not be anywhere to go for ANYONE IN FLORIDA.
Most of Florida is only about four feet above sea level. The Tsunami 30 Meter (100 feet tall) wave from Las Palma might very well wash over the ENTIRE LANDMASS of the state.
Elevation of Capitol Hill, Washington, DC, USA 79 ft.
In fact, scientists say that the area impacted by any such Tsunami contains twenty-nine percent (29%) of the US population and they estimate 65 Million DEAD.
There are plenty documentaries on tubes about this.
-Worse case says up to 250 miles inland using rivers.
-Travel a few hundred miles per hour
-Seven-Eight hours to reach NYC
Long island would go underwater for a time
So would Florida
A few dozen nuclear reactors would be Fukushima, or worse
Hudson River would flood all the way to Albany
Could be one large one or several smaller ones.
or,...we could see a little ripple at the docks.
Just keep your tank filled w gas. Download some tsunami alert app or something
Oh then there is this -
"REV 8:8 - And the second angel sounded, and as it were a great mountain burning with fire was cast into the sea: and the third part of the sea became blood;"
"A volcano erupted then busted up with a large portion falling into the sea killing 1/3 of all coastal inhabitants of that sea."
no, doesn't say which sea
The wave touches down, flowing onto beaches and flooding bays. Coastal buildings don’t stand a chance; water rushes inland 10-40 miles along the entire eastern seaboard. Homes are destroyed, countless hotels crumble under the force. Chemical plants that once churned out product by the oceanside spill their toxic waste into the sea.
Here is an animation for land inundation from NYC to Boston based on LAND ELEVATION:
Beaches up and down the coast account for billions of dollars in tourism revenue each summer. It looks like vacationers might not be able to return for decades thanks to the amount of oils and solvents released.
On top of that, the East Coast is home to 29 percent of the U.S. population. Now they are displaced — their homes destroyed, their cities flooded. Not everyone made it out in time.
It’s not the end of the world, but it very much feels like it.
Analysis: La Palma’s mega-tsunami is a disaster, no doubt. And — scarily enough — it’s not impossible.
In 1949, the Cumbre Vieja volcano erupted along the coast of La Palma and caused an earthquake that created a mile-long fissure on its east side.
The force of the fissure then caused the volcano’s west side to slip six feet into the Atlantic Ocean. It has since remained in this position, its estimated 1.5 trillion metric tons waiting like a ticking time bomb.
Researcher and scientist Steven Ward, now a research geophysicist at the Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, UC Santa Cruz, and Simon Day, a senior research associate at the Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction, University College London, first quantified the features of the La Palma mega-tsunami. Their video model appears below.
Readers must watch this earthquake swarm very diligently. At the first sign of a major eruption, or at first hint of a landslide/collapse due to the earthquakes, get away from the US East Coast by at least 50 miles inland.
Remember, it will only take about 8 hours for the Tsunami to reach the USA once it is generated by a landslide. Anyone in its way, will likely not survive.
Here's a brief video showing how it might play out:
Direct link to live earthquake monitoring on the island HERE
The Volcanological Institute has registered this Sunday a considerable increase in seismic movements located in the area of Mazo and Fuencaliente,
in #LaPalma. Only between Saturday and Sunday have the 300 earthquakes been exceeded # TN2Canarias
El instituto Vulcanológico ha registrado este domingo un considerable aumento de movimientos sísmicos localizados en la zona de Mazo y Fuencaliente, en #LaPalma. Solo entre el sábado y el domingo se han superado los 300 sismos #TN2Canarias pic.twitter.com/xCwHRPQykX— RTVC (@RTVCes) September 12, 2021
SEISMOGRAPH 02:40 AM EDT
UPDATE 03:05 AM EDT --
Much better and more detailed Video showing the actual FAULT LINE which is 9 miles long, and the five-hundred-BILLION pounds of land that may plummet into the Atlantic:
The strong earthquake swarm which started under the area of La Cumbre Vieja volcano in the southern part of the Island of La Palma, in the Canary Islands yesterday is CONTINUING and growing STRONGER. So far, more than 350 tremors have been detected, including 14 quakes of magnitudes above 3.0 and 226 quakes between 2.0 and 2.9.
The strongest was a magnitude 3.4 event at 00.46 am local time this morning, which was felt by nearby residents.
Most earthquakes are at shallow depths around 8-12 km, suggesting that new magma is currently intruding into a reservoir under the volcano. Whether or not this might be leading up to new volcanic activity is impossible to say at this stage.
Similar earthquake swarms have occurred in the past as well, most recently in late Dec last year; however back then, the quakes were deeper (at around 30 km depth), which could indicate that magma has now risen higher in the volcano's underground storage systems.
La Cumbre Vieja volcano last erupted in 1971, and it is considered one of the most active volcanoes of the Canary Islands.
The Scientific Committee for the government of Spain has declared a "Pre-Emergency Alert" over what they believe is now a LIKELY eruption.
Whether the side of the island falls into the ocean causing a mega-tsunami, remains to be seen.
Anyone living with 50 miles of the east coast of North America, both US and CANADA, should keep close watch on this because if the landslide takes place, the east coast of north America could face inundation by tsunami waves of 30 meters (100 feet) tall, penetrating 10-40 miles inland.
The government of the Canary Islands has issued a YELLOW ALERT for a probable volcanic eruption on the Island of La Palma from the Cumbre Viejo Volcano.
According to the information below, the government is convinced there is a significant magma intrusion ongoing into the volcano from underground, making a large and violent eruption likely.
The earthquakes are getting **MUCH** stronger.
Here is the seismograph from right now:
Worse, these earthquakes are now centered DIRECTLY BENEATH the slab of land (the size of Manhattan, NY) which is loose and slated to fall-off into the ocean:
Remember Leilani Estates in Hawaii and Iceland more recently? The explosive part took place with almost no warning. Lava began spewing in places without any advance warning at all. The same can happen on La Palma island right now.
Be ready, just in case.
If you reside on the east coast of north America, anywhere from New Foundland, Canada, all the way to Key West, FL, you need to be prepared to up and go immediately.
Have your items pre-packed, and as much pre-loaded in the vehicle. Remember the pets. Remember winter is coming, grab boots, winter clothes and a coat or two just in case.
FILL your vehicles with fuel ASAP! Fill an extra 5-gallon gas can or two to take with you.
When/IF this happens (tsunami), you will have 2 hours to get off the East Coast before the highways and gas stations become clogged with panicky people trying to get out themselves.
It will take 6+ hours for the tsunami to reach the American East Coast from the Canary Islands. BE OUT within 2 hours of it happening-DO NOT WAIT for the government/MSM to tell you ANYTHING...or you and your family ARE DEAD
Almost the ENTIRE LAND AREA OF FLORIDA is in danger from such a tsunami. The whole state is only about four feet above sea level. Those in the far south should take "alligator alley" then head into Alabama and then northward away from the Gulf. Trying to go north will likely quickly become a traffic parking lot for those coming up from the south.
Canary Islands Government NOW WARNING THE PUBLIC Click HERE
According to "Earthquake Info" a Magnitude 6.2 earthquake just took place in the Atlantic Ocean, northwest of the Canary Islands as shown on the map below. It allegedly took place at a shallow depth of only 10km.
Seismographs on the Canary Islands seem to CONFIRM this quake just took place:
If this is accurate, this is now tectonic movement instead of just Magma movement as seen on the Canary Island of LaPalma. It could be that what's taking place on LaPalma is destabilizing the tectonic plates themselves.
Seismographs just all went BLANK! No live data coming from LaPalma . . . at all!
The seismos are back online (Thank God):
At about 2:00 AM eastern U.S. time this morning, the largest earthquake in the ongoing swarm took place directly beneath the area of concern on the island of La Palma. A Magnitude 3.9 earthquake shook the area from a shallow depth of 9km.
Here is the report from the European earthquake agency:
After that quake, additional earthquakes began taking place EVERY THREE TO FIVE MINUTES. These are smaller earthquakes, but they seem to be in some sort of repeating rhythm.
So the land mass on the western flank of the island, which is already unstable from the 1971 quake, is now being shaken repeatedly. It was that western flank, which is about the size of the island of Manhattan, NYC, that "slipped" 13 feet downward in 1971.
So try to imagine something as big and heavy as the island of Manhattan, suddenly sliding sideways into the ocean, perhaps in one fell swoop, and you begin to understand how this could create the mega-tsunami outlined in the two videos above.
I am endeavoring to get access to the satellite-connected geo-location data.
There are satellite-enabled sensors all along the area of concern which were put there to monitor the slightest actual movement of the land mass. They are the alarm bells for the massive landslide that is feared to take place.
For some reason though, authorities are reluctant to provide the data. It's almost as if they don't want anyone to know if the area of concern is already sliding.
If I gain access to the satellite geolocation movement data, I will make it available.
For now, to give you insight as to the shear magnitude of the land mass that is set to slide into the ocean, watch the 6 min. video below. It is taken along the actual land mass which is the western flank of La Palma island.
Everything you see to the right (going upwards) and to the left (going downwards toward the ocean) is what would slide off into the ocean if these quakes continue.
Scientists say it would be at least five hundred BILLION pounds of rock and dirt, moving toward the ocean at terminal velocity of about 120 MPH (200 kph) with one gigantic splash, that triggers the mega tsunami. That tsunami would reach the east coast of north America in about 6 hours, in the form of 100 foot tall walls of water moving about 500 MPH, that would penetrate upwards of forty (40) miles inland along the ENTIRE east coast, killing almost everything in its path.
I have been able to obtain the geo-location satellite data. It is trivial, but there IS movement.
The seismic activity appears to be moving west and depth has decreased.
The surface deformation has reached 1.5 cm. (So the land mass, the size of Manhattan, NYC, has started to move)
Since the beginning of the seismic series at 3:18 (UTC) on the 11th, until 8:00 UTC today, 2935 quakes detected, 616 of which have been located.
Ground deformation and tilt measurements show inflation of magma chamber.
Last diagram representative of geologic structure (from 2011 El Hierro)
#La Palma #volcano (Canary Islands): likelihood of new #volcanic eruption increases - The volcanic-seismic crisis continues to evolve. During the past 24 hours, earthquakes have been moving westwards and become shallower, the <link ...https://t.co/WCqogPleAl— VolcanoDiscovery (@volcanodiscover) September 14, 2021
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I am being deluged with telephone calls from people who read this article and want some sort of personal consultation. A lot of people honestly don't know what's going to happen and don't want to stir a panic then look like an idiot if nothing happens. That's how people lose their jobs, their reputations get trashed; elected officials or people in academia are in no hurry to do that to themselves. Neither am I.
I report the facts as they are known. I point out what is possible. I don't know if this is actually going to take place. I am warning all of you that it very much CAN take place so you can plan, prepare, and be able to get out at a moments notice if everything goes wild weasel. Like all of you, I can only wait and see. I have no information that I can give to you personally, which isn't already published here.
That said, from the Canary Islands government this morning:
The scientific coordinator of INVOLCAN, Nemesio Pérez, pointed out that what is happening with the volcano "should alert us, but not alarm us", because "Cumbre Vieja is not in the pre-eruptive phase."
He went on to clarify "three reasons why this swarm is different from the previous nine:
The depth of the seismic focus, which goes from 20-30km now up to 10-12km.
The magnitude of the earthquakes is relatively greater.
The number of events per day is higher.
Nemesio points out that the yellow alert level has been declared. Also, remember that the volcano is now "much more watched than five years ago", so "we should have the ability to warn early if its eruptive process starts."
At this point, their key government agency is not calling this imminent. It's going to be a wait, watch, and see thing.
I would definitely not panic.
But having a "go-bag" and keeping an eye on things seems sensible!!
Overnight, a very troubling development: an earthquake took place along the ocean edge of the potential landslide area, and that quake was located . . . ready for this . . . . at a depth of ONE KILOMETER. Here:
The fact that these earthquakes continue to take place and more shallow depths is proof the magma underground is pushing its way through rock toward the surface. As that rock breaks and moves, we get earthquakes. This present "swarm" of earthquakes began on September 11 and has not let up since then. The quakes are becoming more and more shallow.
All this shaking does not do the loose chunk of land, the size of Manhattan, any good. It just serves to destabilize it more and more.
Readers along the coast of north America absolutely must keep abreast of this situation because if that chunk of loose land slides off the island of La Palma into the Atlantic ocean, a Tsunami will strike the US/CANADA east coast about 6 hours later.
This most recent earthquake at only ONE KILOMETER DEPTH changes a lot. That means there's either finger filtration of magma going on or we're gonna have a huge explosion. These haven't really been releases of energy these have been building of energy pockets and these particle masses are going to be extreme.
CANARY ISLANDS ASKS E.U. TO ACTIVATE COPERNICUS EMERGENCY SATELLITE
The Government Delegation in the Canary Islands has requested the National Center ask to activate the Copernicus, an EU service for the provision of emergency images and cartography, for Monitoring and Coordination of Emergencies (Cenem) to activate the Copernicus due to the seismic activity detected on the island of La Palma and at the request of the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME).
Cenem has devices for the monitoring and follow-up of national alert networks, potential risk situations, incidents and emergencies in the field of civil protection, and it has state-of-the-art satellite technology tools at its disposal.
One of these tools is the Copernicus Program of the European Union, which serves for the provision of emergency images and cartography. The EU Copernicus service is activated at the request of the autonomous communities and offers free operational services
The President of the Canary Islands is issuing message of calm.
The Copernicus Program has begun. This means all of Europe's (EU) monitoring systems are focused now.
(HT REMARK: Reminds me of the movie 2012 where the actor says to his wife "When they tell you not to panic, that's when you run!")
Here's that scene
La Palma has begun preparing evacuation protocols: the operation is prepared for a "hypothetical" eruption.
The mayor of El Paso, Sergio Rodríguez, has confirmed that the island and regional institutions are working to coordinate and update the protocol that would have to be activated in the event of a volcanic eruption on La Palma.
"The meeting that took place yesterday was to be prepared in all areas, since we have to locate and be clear about the evacuation routes that we need to be able to get the neighbors out. In addition, we must know the means we have. There is no operation underway, but we must have the main issues at hand with regard to equipment, generators, and machinery. The current situation requires it and, although it is unlikely, we must have everything ready" he explained.
In this same sense, he has pointed out that the population of the municipality is highly sensitized, especially in the neighborhoods where most of the tremors of the seismic swarm that began last Saturday are being registered.
There has been a sudden deformation of the ground directly above the earthquake activity, showing a 6 cm movement of the unstable land mass on the southwestern flank of the island of La Palma. This unstable area is now showing in all red on the map below. THIS is precisely the section of land at risk of sliding off into the ocean and causing a Tsunami that wipes out the US east coast.
The surface of the island of La Palma has now risen and been deformed by 6 centimeters in the area where the strongest seismic movements are located, around the Cumbre Vieja, and this afternoon some low-magnitude earthquakes have been registered at a ‘shallow depth’ which is between one and three kilometers under the ground.
Comparison of La Palma to Mt. St. Helens Eruption
Just did a little research for comparisons-sake on the Mt. Saint Helens eruption.
Deformation characteristics were far more obvious on Mt. St. Helens at hundreds of feet with the mountain bulging outward as 0.03 cubic miles of magma intruded.
Two months of thousands of small quakes under this deformation later, a 0.7 cubic mile section of the mountain created the largest recorded landslide.
In the weeks before the eruption the deformation accelerated to 5-6 feet per day, with a total of 400 feet of displacement northward before the collapse. Near the end, the south end of the mountain began to sink which dictated imminent eruption.
At La Palma we are seeing 1-3 inches of displacement per day but on the much MUCH larger scale of 400-500 cubic miles of material; roughly 700x the amount of Mt. St. Helens.
If we are to have learned anything from Mt. St. Helens, it’s to look for expanding faults around the boundary of the outward deformation bulge, look for sinking of landmass behind the bulge, and if a collapse-style eruption is expected . . . . evacuate the Atlantic coast in the USA and CANADA.
Spain now discussing evacuation options for La Palma in case an eruption does occur.
Seismic activity continues to migrate slightly to the northwest, at depths of around 8 km, with 20 shallow earthquakes (1-3 km) also being recorded. The maximum accumulated deformation reaches about 6 cm.
The seismic activity that began at 3:18 (UTC) on the 11th continues. Until 12:00 (UTC) today, 4222 earthquakes have been detected in the southern area of the island of La Palma, of which they have located a total of 920.
Activity continues to migrate in a northwesterly direction. Since 00:11 (UTC), 20 earthquakes have been located at depths between 1-3 km (with errors between 2-3 km), with the largest event being 2.9 mbLg, at a depth of 0.4 km . The rest of the activity continues at depths between 7 and 9 km. The accumulated energy so far is 2.5 × 1011 Joules.
The maximum accumulated vertical deformation is around 6 cm in the area close to seismicity and its distribution is still compatible with a center of pressure in this area. These movements have been observed both with the island's GNSS network and through InSAR data (Sentinel-1). On the other hand, the eastern trend observed in previous days in the Cumbre Vieja inclinometer seems to have stabilized.
***** FLASH *****
SMALL LANDLSIDES HAVE BEGUN
Landslides have been registered in the coastal neighborhood of El Remo, near Puerto Naos. Thus, a large cloud of dust can be seen from landslides on a mountain.
The seismic intensity on La Palma is growing rapidly and a “rapid” evolution of the situation is not ruled out, as experts have reported in recent hours.
The volcano slowed in earthquakes overnight, but this morning has resumed the swarm and is now generating significant harmonic tremors, indicating the magma underground is now vibrating along with the earthquakes it is causing. This vibration amplifies the effects of the quakes.
Small landslides from the steep, 6,000 feet tall slope are now becoming frequent. It is this 6,000 foot tall, 9 mile long, slab of land that is in danger of sliding off into the ocean causing a tsunami that could reach the US east coast 7 hours later:
This morning, the southern most GPS box on the island is showing the southern part of the island, IS SINKING! It is showing lower elevation above sea level! This will serve to exacerbate the steepness of the 6,000 foot hill above, making a landslide even MORE likely.
The image below shows the satellite view of the 6,000 foot tall mountainous area in danger of falling into the ocean and causing the Tsunami:
Below, the former volcanic vents which have destabilized this giant mountain are arrowed:
So the danger is that, if the Cumbre Vieja volcano goes into Eruption again, all those vents will fill with lava, dislodge the giant, 6,000 foot mountain, and send it hurtling into the Atlantic ocean below . . . and sending a Tsunami to the entire Atlantic ocean, reaching the US Coastline 7 hours later.
(I have added Anchors to this article so readers can click the most recent update at the top of the story and get directly to the most recent update.)
FINALLY ! ! ! the mass-media has now begun covering this . . . only four days late:
The video below is terrific because it shows what has actually taken place with these earthquakes over the past four days:
UPDATE 2:55 PM EDT Thursday --
There is another component to this potential tsunami: Nuclear Power Plants.
As was seen in Japan when a tsunami struck there in 2011, nuclear power plants can get flooded, lose power, lose cooling of the nuclear reactor cores and stored, spent-fuel ponds, and explode. That took place in Japan after the tsunami, when three of six reactors at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear power plant got hit by the tsunami, melted-down and exploded, sending radiation all over the planet.
Here is what those plants looked like after the initial melt-downs and explosions:
Below is a map showing the location of U.S. nuclear power plants. There are quite a few along the US east coast that COULD be affected by any tsunami from La Palma in the Canary Islands:
By our count, there are EIGHTEEN nuclear power plants that would be directly impacted by any tsunami. Seabrook in New Hampshire, Pilgrim-1 in Massachusetts, Indian Point in Buchanan, Westchester County, NY, All four plants in New Jersey, two in Maryland, two in Virginia, two in North Carolina, and four on the east coast of Florida, with another POTENTIAL on the west coast of Florida if the Tsunami reaches the Gulf of Mexico.
That __ could __ spell multiple melt-downs, as an added disaster on top of the tsunami.
The short window 8 hours or less to get all the plants prepped and into shut down would be one unprecedented challenge, though perhaps doable.
But then there is aftermath isolation of so many plants that then have to be kept cooling by human fed diesel generator power alone.
Major road and bridge washouts, and tsunami transformed costal geography with newly cut inlet and island features would make multi nuke plant melt down prevention a national and military emergency in and of itself.
We've just been told on the local TV news channel (Canal 11 La Palma) that there is no danger to the local population from an eruption which may arise from the current seismic activity.— Paul Leyland (@Brnikat) September 16, 2021
When reassurances like that are made by the authorities it is time to start panicking.
UPDATE 9:37 AM FRIDAY EDT --
I have been contacted by a Geologist who chose to compare the actual tsunami that took place in Japan (Fukushima) in 2011 and the potential tsunami of a flank collapse of the Cumbre Viejo volcano on the island of La Palma in the Canary Islands. His analysis is terrifying.
He reports as follows:
To calculate the water displacement by a flank collapse of the Cumbre Viejo volcano on the island of LaPalma in the Canary Islands, you need to multiply 200 km x 100 km x SEVERAL METERS (how much the fault moved vertically). This is the total land area that is unstable and in danger of collapsing into the ocean.
If you do that, you come up with a much smaller number. "Several meters" is up to 10 meters. Let's say 10 meters, which is 0.01 km.
So, 200 cubic km. water displacement.
Or 100 cubic km. water displacement if the vertical move was 5 meters.
Another thing that have to be considered is the speed at which the fault which caused the 2011 Japan Tsunami (Fukushima) moved upward, which is MUCH SLOWER then a landslide.
All in all, the Fukushima tsunami was generated by a land mass at least 60% smaller (if 10 meters vertical move), or 80% smaller (if 5 meter vertical move) then Cumbre Vieja, with an energy also much smaller.
The angle at what the Japan (Fukushima) fault moved is also highly important, because the water displacement in the case of Fuku or Indonesia tsunamis were even smaller then 100 cubic km.
It is impossible to calculate the difference, but it is safe to say that Fuku tsunami would be but a fraction of the Cumbre Vieja tsunami, in water displacement, speed and energy.
Probably around 10% or less destructive power, and not even 0.01% the damage cost (material costs in impacted area only, not the instant collapse of world economy...), IF the Cumbre Vieja eruption will cause a 500 cubic km. landslide.
The aftermath of a 500 cubic km. landslide would be cataclysmic, and that is the only word that might describe it.
An interesting additional development:
The same guy from IGN, where we get the earthquake data, who made a public statement on twitter that their data is continuously reviewed and updated (including mags and depths), is the same guy who is now tweeting that certain local scientists and technical staff involved with their volcano warning system should not be saying certain things to the public re: possibility of eruption.
The more I read the more I think those in charge of the data are either self directed to, or being directed to, suppress data
Multiple locals tweeting they feel confused and unsure of plans, preps, and possibilities, citing conflicting messaging from officials and media
Also worth noting there are multiple local accounts in Canaries and Spain tweeting not to worry, no eruption coming, all is well, claiming to know, and all these accounts seem to be of a particular political identity.
President of the Canary Islands says "if the eruption occurs, we have the mechanism to evacuate more than 2,000 people."
(Uh... population on La Palma is 85,000.)
Just like the U.S. government can't tell millions of people that a tsunami is going to wipe out the East Coast for the panic it would cause, these officials on La Palma can't tell the whole island to start evacuating.
Maybe "we can only evacuate 2,000 people" is their round about way of telling those smart enough to read between the lines and get out on their own while they can.
UPDATE 1:07 PM EDT FRIDAY --
Deformation is now at 12 cm.
(All the officials speaking have a super worried look on their faces. They only have the capacity to evacuate 2,000 people. The island has over 83,000.)
Authorities in La Palma, Canary Islands, have warned there could be a volcanic eruption in the coming days due to the sudden increase in seismic activity.
The National Geographic Institute in Spain has detected 20,650 earthquakes in an “earthquake swarm” in the Cumbre Vieja national park, around the Teneguia volcano in the south of the island.
On Tuesday, September 14, the Canary Island’s regional government put the island on yellow alert for a potential volcanic eruption because the quakes intensified and moved closer to the surface.
The yellow alert is the second of a four-level alert system.
UPDATE 2:46 PM EDT FRIDAY --
Word from a listener with extended family living in the Canary Islands:
"The La Palma government is publicly saying they are at a YELLOW ALERT level . . . but the things they are actually implementing on the ground are from the higher, ORANGE ALERT level. They are saying one thing, but clearly doing another thing."
• O governo espanhol enviou aviões pra monitoramento e resgates;— Haniya 🌍 (@haniyabia) September 17, 2021
• Alarmes passaram por manutenção
Apesar do alerta ser 🟨, medidas 🟧 foram adotadas #CumbreVieja #vulcao #tsunaminobrasil#lapalma #Tsunami
In other words they are keeping the world at bay with a yellow status while they treat the direct situation on the island as ORANGE.
In deeper other words: they know much more about the pending eruption than the global public is being informed of.
Intentional blocking of the real status by govts and international media.
The government of the Canary Islands is now telling both residents and tourists to "pack a bag and make ready your pets for evacuation in case of volcano eruption."
45 earthquakes TODAY (so far) with "several" at only 1 km depth. Ground has bulged "more than 12 cm."
Volcano appears to be headed toward major eruption.
Now: Surface Quakes !!!!!
Region CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
Date time 2021-09-18 03:22:17.7 UTC
Location 28.59 N ; 17.90 W
Depth 0 km
Region CANARY ISLANDS, SPAIN REGION
Date time 2021-09-18 03:26:10.7 UTC
Location 28.58 N ; 17.90 W
Depth 0 km
GOVERNMENT CALLS MEETINGS FOR RESIDENTS OF CERTAIN TOWNS, ONLY ONE PERSON FROM EACH HOUSEHOLD DUE TO SPACE LIMITATIONS. . . . .
"We would like to inform you that today, 18th September, two meetings will take place to inform the residents of Las Manchas de Abajo, San Nicolás, Jedey, La Bombilla, El Remo and Puerto de Naos about the volcanic risk alert.
At 18:00 hours
At 19:30 hours
NEW OFFICIAL STATEMENT:
Due to increased seismic activity
Territorial scope: Los Llanos de Aridane, Fuencaliente, El Paso y Mazo
As a whole, a low seismicity is maintained, although from 03:00 UTC (04:00 in the Canary Islands) after the occurrence of a magnitude 3.2 earthquake with intensity III, an intensification of seismicity begins with numerous earthquakes with localized events both at depths of 6-8 km, as shallow (0-2 km). As already indicated in previous bulletins, the occurrence of felt earthquakes of greater intensity is likely, which can cause damage to buildings. They can also cause rockslides in the surroundings of Puerto Naos (from the bulb to the paddle).
moreover, the deformations are still ongoing, maintaining the speed of yesterday, being compatible with a source of surface deformation.
The beginning of other phenomena observable on the surface (changes in temperature, odor and color of the water, anomalous behavior of animals, etc.) cannot be ruled out.
citizens are requested to notify the authorities of any anomaly they observe.
the process continues and can have a rapid evolution in the short term.
For all the above, it is recommended to keep the volcanic traffic light in yellow in the old summit area, and it cannot be ruled out that it will intensify in the short term. the traffic light will be revised in accordance with the evolution of the process.
Continuous monitoring of activity has been reinforced and any significant changes observed will be reported. stay tuned to the information provided by the corresponding civil protection authorities.
UPDATE 4:07 PM EDT SATURDAY --
At a meeting called by the Government, citizens were told:
"You will have 45-60min after Orange level is declared to evacuate to the designated Reunion Site by the govt."
They won't evacuate the whole island. . .population 85,000 . . . only around 2-3K citizens around the area"
(Hal Turner Remark: Is Joe Biden running this evacuation the way his regime ran Afghanistan????)
‼️Información de interés para habitantes de La Palma 🇮🇨, difundida por el Cabildo.— EM - electomania.es (@electo_mania) September 18, 2021
Se recomienda su lectura y difusión por si fuese necesaria una evacuación, conocer qué hacer y evitar riesgos.https://t.co/EqNRLwPZK9pic.twitter.com/O3r6hPk61w
Quakes are now happening in the same minute, and a minute or less in between.
The public has been reminded: Almost any moderate to significant volcanic ash or toxic gas venting with un-evacuated people in close proximity or in its direct path (whether classified as "eruption" or not) kills.
Villages of thousands elsewhere in the world have died just from vented clouds of volcanic produced Carbon Dioxide gas, which vented from pockets or chambers beneath a lake and, being a heavier gas than air/oxygen, pushed all breathable air above their head levels...and they dry suffocated or dry drowned all at once in minutes.
Since this earthquake swarm began on September 11, there have now been more than 22,700 earthquakes
Leaflet being passed to citizens by government:
plan de evacuación en caso de erupción volcánica en la Palma pic.twitter.com/fgFuRnR9ry— JCCANDAL VILLAVERDE (@JCCANDAL) September 18, 2021
***BULLETIN 5:16 PM EDT ***
THE FORCE OF THE ERUPTION HAS NOTHING (AT ALL) TO DO WITH THE LAND SLIDE AND TSUNAMI !!!!
From the video below, we see that the old formation of lava tubes, lined with cooled lava, are impermeable to water. GROUND WATER.
In the years since those tubes formed, it has rained. Lots of tropical rain. And that rain soaked into the ground and is saturating the ground below about 20 feet.
That water is TRAPPED by the old lava tubes which are impermeable. So the ground water just lays there, accumulating.
When the next eruption comes, the new lava naturally goes through the old lava tubes and those tubes heat up. REALLY HOT.
The heat begins to BOIL the trapped ground water into steam. It boils the lowest water first because the source of the heat starts deep underground.
When enough steam and steam pressure is created deep underground, the upward pressure of the super-heated steam trying to escape, overcomes the friction which holds the dirt and rock in-place; the dirt and rock above the steam literally SLIDES on a cushion of steam and ground water, right off the side of the island and into the Atlantic Ocean.
So the force of the eruption and the strength of the earthquakes preceding it, is almost meaningless. Its the ground water boiling off from lava intrusion that prompts the landslide into the Atlantic Ocean, causing the Tsunami wave.
For reference sake, for those who are visiting this BULLETIN and who have NOT read the entire story above it, we're talking about a slab of land the size of Manhattan, NYC. It is as long as Manhattan, with one side at sea level and the other side rising up 6,000 feet to the top of the island. The dirt and rock is already at an extreme angle from millions of years of prior eruptions. It may not take much to cause it to start slipping, and falling right off the island into the Atlantic Ocean. And with a giant "plop" all that rock and dirt will displace 500 cubic miles of water, sending a huge amount of it hurtling to the US east coast.
The map below shows how far a fifty meter wave would intrude into the United States:
It is important to note that scientists DISAGREE about how tall a tsunami wave might be. Some studies say it would only be 2.9 meters (about 9 feet), other studies show between 20 and 25 meters (about 100 feet). Some studies say the "mid-Atlantic ridge" along the ocean floor would "gut" the tsunami, greatly reducing it's power. Truth is, none of us really knows how big it might be. So the map above is, to our thinking, a WORST CASE.
Will SOME of the east coast be inundated? YES. How much of it? We just don't know.
We here on the US east coast - including me -- need to get very ready to move out, far inland, (50+ miles) and fast.
IF -- and that's a big "if" --- this landslide takes place and the tsunami is generated, it will take about 7 hours to reach the US east coast. And once the general public is told it's coming, the traffic will grind to a halt for hours as millions flee for their lives, making it impossible to get out.
There is no reason at all to panic, but there is very sufficient reason to PLAN. Plan where you will evacuate to. Plan other routes to get there. Have cash money . . . because if a tsunami hits New York City, it will take out the big banks, and their ability to process credit/debit cards. You may need cash to get hotel rooms, food, fuel.
Plan. Don't panic.
UPDATE 1:35 AM EDT SUNDAY --
The seismographs are really rocking and rolling over on LaPalma at this hour; lots of earthquakes, and larger ones at that:
UPDATE 9:37 AM EDT SUNDAY --
The Spanish newspaper "OK DIARIO" reports this morning:
"The increase in the intensity of the seismic swarm that has shaken La Palma (Canary Islands) since September 10 , which in the last hours has registered the strongest earthquakes at ground level, makes experts anticipate that the risk of explosion of the Cumbre Vieja volcano is imminent. So much so that the tremors have been increasing in recent hours and, according to the neighbors themselves, there has been an explosion followed by a rockfall that has been perceived in Las Manchas .
Since dawn, according to seismological data, more than a dozen earthquakes have been recorded. Most of them, of more than 3 degrees of magnitude, have been located at zero depth. This raises concerns that if earthquakes continue to increase, they may affect buildings and buildings, with structural damage. However, the one that has been felt in the middle of the morning has risen in intensity to 3.8 degrees on the Richter scale, which has caused not only the fright among the population but also that rockfalls have been registered on the slope from the Cumbre Vieja volcano."
UP TO 40,000 RESIDENTS OF LA PALMA ARE READY IF AN EVACUATION ORDER IS GIVEN
A LOUDSPEAKER SYSTEM WILL BE USED ACROSS THE ISLAND TO WARN ABOUT AN EVACUATION, SPANISH GUARDIA CIVIL SAID TO BE PREPARED TO ASSIST IN THE EVACUATION
Instructions being issued to citizens translate as follows from Spanish:
- In the event of a possible evacuation, it would be announced through the OFFICIAL website and networks of the City Council and over the public address system.
- Those who have a second home, family or friends outside the affected areas, can move on their own.
- All those people who have nowhere to go, should go to the following meeting points in each neighborhood, where they will find a responsible person who will give them directions ...
LOS QUEMADOS: Social Center.
LAS INDIAS: Plaza de las Indias.
LAS CALETAS: Colegio de las Caletas.
LOS CANARIOS: Visitors center.
LA FAJANA: Children's Park.
EL CHARCO: El Charco Park.
COAST AREA: Plaza de Las Indias.
- It is recommended to have prepared:
* Light hand luggage.
* Phone charged and with charger.
* Personal medication.
* Important documentation.
From the social services, the Cabildo and Civil Guard have been transferred to all those people with reduced mobility, bedridden or who need help in the event of a possible evacuation. They can notify any need to the phones ...
922 44 40 03/615 45 97 33 FROM 8:00 TO 14:00.
If you have any questions or for more information, you can contact these phones according to neighborhood:
THE CANARIES: 605 39 93 52 (CELIA SANTOS)
EL CHARCO AND LA FAJANA: 605 68 84 81 (GREGORIO ALONSO) ...
LAS CALETAS: 651 82 53 84 (JOEL HDEZ)
LOS QUEMADOS: 651 85 71 12 (PATRICIA HDEZ)
LAS INDIAS Y ZONA DE LA COSTA: 605 46 45 76 (JOSE ANTONIO
Official information from the Fuencaliente de La Palma City Council.
Now a Magnitude 4.0:
FLASH TRAFFIC 9:57 AM EDT --
Locals on LaPalma have uploaded a photograph which they say shows "Detachment." Part of the land which is FEARED to slide into the Atlantic Ocean and cause a Tsunami to the east coast of the United States, appears to have begun to DETACH at its top. There is a very clear tear in the forest atop the mountain showing bare earth along the uppermost ridge there the trees on the land have torn away from each other. If this photo shows what the locals claim, then the landslide could happen **today** Photo below:
Locals are now uploaded photos showing what they call a "Giant Land Fracture" a great crevice seems to have begun to open showing a long tear in the land from the top of the mountain toward the bottom. Dirt can be seen in the air from the tearing motion. It APPEARS the giant land mass feared to slide into the Atlantic Ocean, is now actually tearing away slowly from the island.
Those on the U.S. east coast must pay extra close attention to this today. Events are taking place at a greatly increased speed.
If the entire chunk of land (the size of Manhattan, NYC) tears away from the island and slides into the Atlantic Ocean, a Tsunami would be generated. That Tsunami would strike the US east coast seven hours later, possibly inundating several MILES on US coastline under tens of FEET of water, and destroying almost everything in its path as it comes ashore.
From the Official Government Volcano Monitoring Center:
Information update: INVOLCAN continues to monitor the ongoing seismicity on #LaPalma. The maximum single event is 4.2 on the Richter scale, recorded in the past hour (yellow star). #volcanology https://t.co/3RmaA9dy07 pic.twitter.com/hqTkt7Rpvs— INVOLCAN (@involcan) September 19, 2021
FROM LOCAL GOVERNMENT:
"The PEVOLCA Directorate begins the preventive evacuation of people with reduced mobility in areas of risk"
It is launched for Las Manchas (Manchas de Abajo, Jedey, San Nicolás and El Paraíso), in the municipalities of El Paso and Los Llanos de Aridane; El Charco (Fuencaliente); La Bombilla (Los Llanos and Tazacorte) and El Remo and Puerto Naos (Los Llanos de Aridane)
The PEVOLCA Scientific Committee reports that we are still in a pre-eruptive phase, with dangers associated with seismicity and landslides.
Preventive measures are intensified, but the yellow traffic light remains in the affected municipalities
This afternoon the Scientific Committee and the PEVOLCA Steering Committee meet again
The Scientific Committee of the Special Plan for Civil Protection and Attention to Emergencies due to Volcanic Risk (PEVOLCA), meeting today Sunday, has recommended to the Plan's Steering Committee the preventive evacuation of the population at risk, after verifying that seismic activity has reached the maximum since start of the swarm on La Palma. Based on this information, the Steering Committee has decided to begin evacuating, as a priority, people with reduced mobility in the population centers of Las Manchas (Las Manchas de Abajo, Jedey, San Nicolás and El Paraíso), which includes the municipalities of El Paso and Los llanos de Aridane; El Charco (Fuencaliente), La Bombilla (Los Llanos de Aridane and Tazacorte) and El Remo and Puerto Naos (Los Llanos de Aridane).
The volcanic traffic light remains yellow, although civil protection actions are intensified and the Technical Directorate is empowered to program the selective evacuation of other areas of the Cumbre Vieja, if necessary, under the coordination of the Cabildo and city councils. The estimated population is one thousand people.
The different administrations have also taken measures to control roads, with access cuts and suspension of activities.
This afternoon the Scientific Committee and the PEVOLCA Steering Committee meet again.
Experts have indicated that seismic activity continues to intensify with events located on the surface to depths of 8 km. The earthquakes felt with maximum intensity III-IV are countable. There are also surface manifestations such as noise, vibrations, associated with surface seismicity. Seismic activity has peaked since the start of the swarm.
In addition, the deformations have increased, with a cumulative deformation of 15 cm (5 cm in the last 24 hours). The center of pressure coincides with the area in which the earthquakes are superficially perceived: Las Manchas and Jedey.
In this scenario, the committee considers the occurrence of felt earthquakes of greater intensity likely, which can cause damage to infrastructures. They can also cause rockslides on the LP-2 highway sections between Fuencaliente and Las Manchas and also on the LP-3 in the access to the Santa Cruz de La Palma-El Paso tunnel. Earthquakes are not ruled out in areas with steep slopes, especially if the seismicity exceeds magnitude 4.0
The experts ask the public to inform the authorities if they observe any anomaly, and that the process continues and may have a short-term evolution. At this time we are in the pre-eruptive phase, increasing the probability that it will culminate in an eruption, without being able to establish a time window.
The Scientific Committee insists on the current relevance of the dangers associated with seismicity and landslides. The intensification of measures with the preventive evacuation of the population at risk is recommended.
The continuous monitoring of the activity has been reinforced and any significant changes observed will be communicated.
The population must be attentive to the communications of the competent authorities in Civil Protection, through official channels and the media.
The Scientific Committee is coordinated by the General Directorate of Security and Emergencies of the Government of the Canary Islands and is made up of representatives of the National Geographic Institute (IGN), Higher Council for Scientific Research (CSIC); The Canary Islands Volcanological Institute (Involcan), the Geological and Mining Institute of Spain (IGME), the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), the Spanish Institute of Oceanography (IEO), the University of La Laguna and the University of Las Palmas de Gran Canaria.
PEVOLCA establishes a volcanic traffic light as an alert system to the population based on four colors depending on the risk: green, yellow, orange and red. In yellow, information to the population, surveillance measures and monitoring of volcanic and seismic activity are intensified.
Before a volcanic eruption, there is a gradual increase in seismic activity, which can last for a long time and can be perceived by the population.
In the case of feeling an earthquake inside a house, protect yourself under a door frame or a solid piece of furniture, such as a table, and stand away from the windows
The "Detachment" (Fracture/Crack) in the land has arrived at the ocean from all the way atop the 6,000 foot cliff!
FLASH TRAFFIC: REPORT: ERUPTION IN PROGRESS
Lava Breached surface, Fires Beginning
Reports are coming in claiming "Eruption in Progress" on the Island of LaPalma.
Video below shows lava has breached the surface and is setting forests on fire.
More eruption lower on the mountain:
📹Imágenes tomadas esta tarde por el avión de coordinación y observación (ACO) @mitecogob en la zona de la #ErupciónLaPalma para la monitorización y el seguimiento de la actividad volcánica pic.twitter.com/TZ9x5qDV3h— 1-1-2 Canarias (@112canarias) September 19, 2021
And . . . Cue the "Masses who are asses"
They were told this was coming. They knew they should evacuate. But noooooo.
They're the ones who are just so much smarter than everyone else. They're the ones who tell you "It's a nothingburger" or "that can't happen" or "Don't listen to that scare monger . . ."
Well, now, it HAS happened.
And all those people who thought they were smarter than everyone else or that nothing would happen, are ALL trying to flee . . . at the same time. WHAM. Traffic jam. Now none of them can get out.
From the "Better Late than Never" category:
RED ALERT DECLARED
Once registered ErupciónLaPalma in the Cabeza de Vaca area and received the request
at 4:47 p.m., the director of the #PEVOLCA updates the situation by going to Emergency on Level 2, red light on #LAPALMA , at 5:00 p.m., under the direction of the Government of the Canary Islands
SEISMOGRAMS SHOW LAVA FLOWS
There are 3 colored lines at the bottom. Green, the behind it blue, and behind that, red. At the left side, where the red starts to tick up, THAT begins the lava flow out of the ground. The blue line shows that flow contionuing, non-stop, and increasing. the green shows continuing flow . . . And this is just the START of the eruption. Things generally get much worse once it starts.
UPDATE 2:28 PM EDT SUNDAY -- UH OH!
From Geologists and Volcanologists:
The geometry of this fault system and the timing of its formation in relation to episodes of vent opening during the eruption indicate that it is not the surface expression of a dyke. Instead, it is interpreted as being the first surface rupture along a developing zone of deformation and seaward movement within the western flank of the Cumbre Vieja: the volcano is therefore considered to be at an incipient stage of flank instability. Climatic factors or strain weakening along the Cumbre Nueva collapse structure may account for the recent development of this instability.
UPDATE 10:08 PM EDT SUNDAY --
Things are getting very much WORSE.
Huge, gigantic, massive, energetic upward lava blasts hurtling lava about a thousand feet into the air, humongous explosions, bright, burning huge lava balls hurtling outward long distances.
This thing is approaching Mt. Doom in intensity.
Hundreds of homes either levelled by lava flow or burning from lava spatter.
Livestock seen running as they burn to death on videos.
Literally MILES of sloping mountain flank on fire.
No one is sure what these firemen think they're doing, but . . . ok.
What started as an impressive eruption has gotten very much worse. It is literally hell on earth. Unimaginable destruction.
UPDATE 8:58 AM EDT MONDAY --
The President of the Canary Islands is now warning that lava will reach the ocean around 8:00 PM local time (they are five hours ahead of US east coast.) and poses an extremely dangerous risk.
📽️ @avtorresp adelanta que se espera que la lava llegue a la zona costera a las 20:00 horas de este martes. "Es absolutamente imprescindible extremar las medidas de seguridad porque estamos ante una circunstancia tremendamente peligrosa"#ErupciónLaPalma pic.twitter.com/ckAZwSPGn6— Presidencia GobCan (@PresiCan) September 20, 2021
WATCH FOR SIMILAR PATTERN!
Here's how the eruption of Mt. Saint Helens went: The landslide took WEEKS of eruption before it took place:
Keep your eyes open for any patterns that match the Mt. St. Helens lateral collapse:
"March 16, 1980: First sign of activity at Mount St. Helens occurred as a series of small earthquakes. 100 earthquakes were recorded in a week.
March 24, 1980: As many as 20 earthquakes in an hour were recorded at the mountain.
March 27, 1980: The volcano produced its first eruption in over 100 years. Steam explosions created a 75 m (250 ft) wide crater.
March 28, 1980: Twelve more eruptions took place.
March 30, 1980: Ninety-three explosions took place in one day.
April 1, 1980: Plumes of steam and ash reached 20,000 feet.
April 3, 1980: The crater grew to about 400 m (1,300 ft) in diameter.
April 8, 1980: A series of explosions lasted four hours, the longest yet.
April 22, 1980: Eruptions occurred on average from about 1 per hour in March to about 1 per day by April 22 when the first period of activity ceased.
May 7, 1980 - May 17, 1980: Small eruptions resumed. More than 10,000 earthquakes occurred and the north flank grew outward about 140 m (450 ft) to form a prominent bulge, growing 2 m (6.5 ft) per day. This was strong evidence that magma (molten rock) had risen high into the volcano.
May 18, 1980: At 8:32a.m., a magnitude 5.1 earthquake occurred. The volcano’s northern bulge and summit slid away as a huge landslide – the largest debris avalanche ever recorded. It flowed north and then west down the valley of the North Fork Toutle River..."
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