Hurricane Dorian Landfall To Be Deadly and Destructive - Latest GFS

Hurricane Dorian Landfall To Be Deadly and Destructive - Latest GFS

The National Hurricane Center reports as of 5:00 AM EDT on Friday, August 30, that Hurricane Dorian is expected to strike the east coast of Florida, with 140 MPH (Category 4) winds and intense, deadly,  "storm surge"  and 24 inches of rain within 50 miles of the coast from Miami to North Carolina!  UPDATE: Ocean Buoys recording 20.7 FOOT Waves!

People along the coast should have PLANS for evacuation as the storm approaches.   Storm Surge is what kills most victims in hurricanes and it happens within minutes.

Here is the latest Global Forecast System (GFS) computer model:


As seen on the model above, the worst of the storm will begin striking Monday afternoon, with landfall of the "eye" happening early Tuesday morning.  Once the hurricane force winds begin to strike the coast Monday, things will get steadily worse as the eye moves toward shore.

The fierce winds - expected to be around 140 MPH -- will push the ocean water onto shore in what's called storm surge.  This surge could exceed twenty-five FEET.  Homes and other buildings within a mile of the coastline will be completely inundated by water and waves crashing on top of that water.   Once the surge begins, it will rise to twenty five feet within three to five MINUTES.

Folks who have not evacuated BEFORE the storm surge begins, have NO CHANCE OF SURVIVING.

Residents must have an evacuation plan, where they will go and how they will get there, BEFORE the storm arrives.  Do not wait until you see it getting bad, to leave.  If you wait, once you see it getting bad, it will get too bad for you to leave, within minutes.

24 Inches Rain

As shown on the rain forecast below, areas within 50 miles of the coast from Miami, FL, thru Georgia, South Carolina, and the coast of North Carolina are expected to be deluged with twenty-four (24) inches of rain.   So if the wind and the storm surge doesn't get you, the flooding from two feet of rain will.



The reason this story is emphasizing evacuation has to do with certain acts taking place now in Florida which appear to many people to be outright stupidity.

These Hurricane Party Cakes were photographed at a PUBLIX supermarket in Florida:

Somehow, we doubt the hurricane will take the message from these cakes and "Go Away"

Although when the storm surge smashes down the walls of houses, it might carry these cakes away . . . . and carry away any idiots who thought they could face-down one of the most fierce examples of nature's awesome power.



Earlier this morning, Dorian passed about 30 or so miles west of this Buoy "Station 41046 - EAST BAHAMAS - 335 NM East of San Salvador Is, Bahamas" (this Buoy reports the weather data every 10 minutes). At 12:50 AM EDT the Maximum Wave Height was  "20.7 ft."

Persons living along the Florida east coast should stop and think about this very carefully.  20 foot waves on top of storm surge.  Houses will NOT survive -- neither will anyone inside them.


UPDATE 7:48 AM EDT -- 

First morning flight recon pass through Dorian's eye finding pressures estimated around 969mb with surface winds of ~110 mph in the NE eyewall.


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  • This commment is unpublished.
    Doug Brown · 5 months ago
    Southern Florida has a peculiar indigenous culture, where the term cracker is not an insult. The people are clannish, but real friendly. They eat greasy grouper and say they like it. Their Key Lime Pie is sensational, especially when really cold from the refrigerator.
    And although they are good people, some are plenty stubborn, believing that staying and riding out a big storm is a show of native originality and inner strength. Over the years many Floridians have paid the price for such hubris with their lives.
    Pity the people that have not the funds, nor the ability, to evacuate, and we are talking not just the homeless population, which is massive, but low-end working people, who sadly haven't the resources to drive north, eat in diners, get a motel, etc. These folks are stuck.
    As well: the low-end nursing homes. They have not the resources to evacuate.
    As well: low-end elderly homes. The patients with no family to assist are especially hard hit.
    As well: jails, prisons, juvenile detention centers. How do you evacuate inmates safely?
    The hospitals are stuck. Some patients that cannot be relocated.
    This list isn't exhaustive.
    The point is that when people call for evacuation, everyone imagines a happy family piling into a Honda van and scooting safely north. This isn't reality.
    Many will be in need of assistance.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Matthew Worner · 5 months ago
    Those must be sponge cakes to dry up any flooding. Can't blame the bakers for being smart enough to market what people are stupid enough to buy. And if they (two of my own kids include) are stupid enough to live in hurricane country they assuredly qualify.