The Mayor of New Orleans made clear this morning the city does not issue evacuation orders unless and until a Hurricane becomes "Category 3" or higher. This policy does NOT account for the Mississippi River already being 16 feet above sea level due to massive Spring rains. When the storm comes, the levees and sea walls protecting the city will likely be OVER-TOPPED. By the time this happens, it will be too late to evacuate!
Some people seem to have learned NOTHING from Hurricane Katrina. They're telling folks to "shelter in place" in New Orleans. I think this is BAD ADVICE.
I think people in New Orleans and its immediate area should EVACUATE RIGHT NOW.
The graphic below shows the city of New Orleans as it relates to the Mississippi River and nearby Lake Pontchartrain:
As you can see, the Mississippi River is presently 16 feet above sea level due to severe rains in the US mid-west this past Spring. The river has NEVER been this high just prior to the arrival of a Tropical Storm or Hurricane; it has NEVER happened before.
The most reliable weather computer model, by far, is the EURO. This morning's EURO shows 38 inches of rain falling in southern Louisiana by the end of this weekend:
Most of that water is going to come down the Mississippi River. The river will likely over-top the levees and sea walls of New Orleans.
It's already rising faster than forecast.
Here is the FORECAST Level:
Here is the ACTUAL water gauge reading from New Orleans:
The photo below was taken this morning in New Orleans from on top of a levee. There is only THREE FEET of levee height remaining before the river floods over . . . . and the storm hasn't even hit yet:
What do you think is going to happen at this -- and other -- levees when 38 inches of rain falls over the next few days? Yep: Over-topped.
And when that water starts pouring in, the roads you THINK you can evacuate on . . . will be flooded almost immediately. You'd be trapped. Maybe drown.
We've only been talking about the river level and rainfall. Now let's talk about "storm surge."
When a Tropical Storm or hurricane approaches the shore, the wind literally pushes sea water toward the land, This wind-driven water is called "Storm Surge." The bigger the storm or more powerful the winds, the higher the water gets pushed.
A tropical storm such as the one in the Gulf of Mexico (Tropical Storm Barry) right now, USUALLY creates a minor storm surge of only 4-6 feet.
Do the math . . .
A river already at 16 feet. Sea walls and levees at 20 feet, but an incoming storm surge of 4-6 feet. At the low end, 4 feet, the water is at the top of the levees. One INCH higher, and the river starts pouring into the city.
What if the storm surge hits 6 feet? That would be two FEET above the levees and sea walls! Imagine two FEET of water pouring into New Orleans along the whole length of the Mississippi River levees. How long might it take for the city to be totally destroyed? A couple hours?
And while this is happening, do you think you will have any hope at all of evacuating?
The National Hurricane Center is NOW predicting Barry will actually BECOME a Hurricane! Here's the latest "cone" of probable landfall; notice the small circle with the "H" in the middle at the shoreline for 7AM Saturday? That stands for "Hurricane." So now re-compute the storm surge for a Category 1 hurricane, and you get storm surge of 5 feet!
SHOCK . . . .
The computer models are now also speculating that this storm could actually grow stronger than Category One Hurricane . . . . Here are the models. Six out of the eight models show it becoming a Category TWO storm:
The storm surge from this Tropical Storm has just started hitting the mouth of the Mississippi within the past hour. Here is the actual storm surge water gauge reading:
Prudence dictates you take action NOW to protect yourself and your family. I recommend you stop what you're doing, pack your valuables, family photos, some clothing, some food and insurance policies, get in your car and GET OUT NOW.
Don't wait. Because by the time the government tells you to leave, it may very well be too late for you.
FLASH UPDATE 11:45 AM EDT --
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell warned that 48 hours of heavy rainfall could overwhelm the pumps the city uses to fight floodwater, leading to flooding.
"We cannot pump our way out of the water levels that are expected to hit the city of New Orleans," Cantrell said. "We need you to understand this."
Water pumps already were working at capacity after heavy rains, she said.
----- Hal Turner Remark ----- Now? Now she says this???? It's been clear for days. Folks in and around New Orleans are URGED (by me) to EVACUATE RIGHT NOW.
UPDATE 12:07 PM EDT --
This "Tropical Storm" is rapidly becoming a Hurricane. Look at this satellite infrared image:
*** FLASH ***
As of 10:00 AM eastern US Time, Saturday, July 13, one Levee has already been BREACHED and other Levees (these in Plaguemines Parish) are being Over-topped by storm surge. Story HERE
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