Mathematical Model of Coronavirus Outbreak - All Travel MUST STOP or Death Toll Will Be "Cataclysmic"

Mathematical Model of Coronavirus Outbreak - All Travel MUST STOP or Death Toll Will Be "Cataclysmic"
28 Comments

Readers of this web site, and listeners to the Hal Turner Radio Show have been asking to see the "Model" being used to calculate the spread of Coronavirus, and how its spread is now computed to be Catastrophic - headed toward CATACLYSMIC.   HERE is the model:

This model is only for the infection rate. Not death rate, and not confirmed cases by the authorities and governments.

It is a mathematical model, based on 4 separate patterns :

-Chinese official number
-The commonly accepted R0 of 2.6 among many epidemiologists
-The Spanish Flu R0 of 1.8
-The weaponized virus R0 > 5

Starting from January 16th, all the patterns, except the one based on an R0 (Reinfection Rate of others) of 2.6 failed to apply.

The R0 = 2.6 pattern still stands, for China. However, considering that China is still allowing free travel among all provinces except Tibet (least populated and most isolated one) and Hubei (the epicenter of the pandemic), the R0 will jump over 3 by Sunday, February 2nd.

For the developed countries, with better hygiene, long history of flu (herd immunization) and high quality medical system, the R0 was skewed (for the time being) to 2.2.

If the developed countries will not stop ALL travel by Sunday, Feb. 2nd, the R0 will jump to 2.6.


Everyone can do their own math, applying an R0 = 2.2, for the develop countries, 2.4 for Asian countries and 2.6 for China, while adjusting the index for infection spread chance to 0.7-0.8.

As an example 10 x 2.2 x 0.7, for developed countries and 10 x 2.2 x 0.8 for SE Asia, South and Central America and Africa.

For those that don't want to do that, here is the infection spread, worldwide (except China mainland), starting with today, January 28th, with all the numbers adjusted :


January 28th 00:00 GMT :
Between 3,000 and 4,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 37-38 cases.

January 29th, 00:00 GMT :
Between 5,200 and 7,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 67-69 cases.

January 30th, 00:00 GMT : Between 8,000 and 12,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 103-106 cases.

January 31st, 00:00 GMT : 12,300 - 20,100 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 158 - 168 cases.

February 1st, 00:00 GMT : 18,900 - 30,900 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 243 - 258

February 2nd, 00:00 GMT : 29,100 - 47,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 374 - 397.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate. These are the numbers :

February 3rd, 00:00 GMT : 48,000 - 78,000 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 617 - 655

February 4th, 00:00 GMT : 79,200 - 128,700 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,018 - 1,080.

If by this date, the traveling between all countries is not stopped, and borders are not closed, the epidemic will accelerate. These are the numbers :

February 5th, 00:00 GMT : 139,000 - 226,500 infected people, in different stages of incubation (1 to 14 days).
Presenting symptoms : 1,790 - 1,900.


From this date on, the pandemic no longer can be contained, without full quarantine, at least for all major cities across the world. This will come with total economic collapse and the panic that will be widespread.

 

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  • This commment is unpublished.
    Jill Hart · 17 days ago
    FYI, I have been tracking these details for the last 3 days (today is Feb 1) and the numbers are spot on.
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      Jill Hart · 17 days ago
      if you translate his labels from suspected cases and actual cases to actual cases and number dead. For instance yesterday the actual cases were 12027 and number dead 259! It has worked that way for the last 3 days.

      That means by Feb 15, just using Hals projects at a 2% death rate (which is about what it has been between cases and deaths for the last three days) over 5 million people will be dead. Right now people can get quality care and there seems to be a 50/50 recovery vs dying outcome based on this map https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6 once this blows past the ability for medical facilities to help people because the staff are all dead, all bets are off. This could be a disaster by next week. Already there are cases in Florida (those school kids) that no one is talking about because of the Super Bowl. That alone could spell the end of our country. Won't that be ironic? With all of the occult attached to that event, it would be just like God to use it to bring down our country in a huge way. BTW - DON'T EAT PORK. A it isn't food and B do you remember the big problems with pork in China all year? And I would recommend staying away from chicken too. Lots of it is processed in China and shipped back.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Paul Lambert · 19 days ago
    I appreciate the reporting you bring us, Hal, and it was right to bring out all these details.

    That said, is it possible that we are simply being blinded by science? After all, we have mathematical models of climate change too, right?
    • This commment is unpublished.
      Jill Hart · 17 days ago
      Except that the models for wuhan virus are being brought up by alternative people; where as the climate change models are primarily brought up by people who are a) not scientists (look at Bill Nye the "not really a" science guy) and b) there is a recognizable agenda behind climate change that involves money.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Elea Baury · 20 days ago
    Where did you find the model, please? a link? the source? Thank you..
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    Sedge Hammer · 20 days ago
    Here's a research paper that has yet to be peer reviewed and claims the virus will have little effect on the white race and probably the further away from Chinese ethnicity the less lethal also. It claims that the Chinese male especially is 5x more likely to be effected by the 2019-nCov. Take it for what it's worth.....

    https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.01.26.919985v1.full
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Jill Hart · 20 days ago
    Just watching Mike Adams site we are at approx 6k infected and 136 dead. Jan 29 numbers are lining up. There are 70 cases being tested in the US
    • This commment is unpublished.
      Jill Hart · 20 days ago
      Also it is taking five days to get test results back
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Steven Tun · 21 days ago
    Hi Hal, for some reason I cannot read the covert Intel on any article. I have logged out and logged in via the link in the article, however still not able to view. Can you have a look into it please. Thank you.
    • This commment is unpublished.
      Bilbo Baggins · 20 days ago
      Can also try restarting computer and clearing cache in your browser, or trying another browser.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Lil'Birdie · 21 days ago
    My grandson is a microbiologist. I sent him the 1st medical report a few days ago.
    He just responded. Thought you all might find this interesting:



    So, I read that article and did some more digging on the origin as well as the transmission of coronavirus. There are a lot of unknowns overall with the virus, but here's what I know for a fact. The part about the virus that will make it REALLY scary is the incubation period. 2-14 days is a long time to be contagious without symptoms before the patient is able to be quarantined.

    Here is the scary takeaway on a "worst case scenario." Simple math can tell you how quickly the virus spread from an initial 11 cases on January 1, to 4500 cases in China this morning.

    Exponential growth here means if uncontained through human intervention, the virus could in a worst case scenario reach 1,840,091 people by the end of February, 752,597,219 people by the end of March, and the entire planet a week or so into March. It's worth noting that air travel makes the spread possible but also limits the speed in which the spread will occur because it takes time for infected individuals to reach areas over seas. With added efforts to screen people at the airport may slow the introduction, but again the incubation period makes this a crapshoot.

    I believe that this worst case scenario is highly unlikely in developed countries like the USA, Canada, France, etc. But countries that fail to care for their people developed or not will be at high risk of the virus running rampant through the country. I.e. if it hit African countries... that would be bad.

    Vaccine development is in the earliest stages. But with three major developers working on a vaccine, its likely to reduce the time it takes. However, the actual development of a vaccine that is effective is the quick part. Clinical trials takes time, and researchers will know absolutely nothing about the long term effects of the vaccine when it has to be administered.

    While I am pretty confident that the virus is not "man made" I have to say that with the present day turmoil in China, coroavirus makes a great platform for government officials to ignore the outbreak for as long as possible in order to create a state of panic that they can use to regain control of the country. Which also stands to reason why they would turn down an expert team of US doctors and researchers when it was offered to them.

    While I don't think its man made, I do think its man's fault that it spread this way. The question is, was allowing it to spread, a malicious act.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    Paul Boyd · 21 days ago
    Hal
    looks like you took those numbers from a post on GLP?
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      Elea Baury · 20 days ago
      what is GLP and how can i read it ?
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      Standing Wave · 21 days ago
      PB - GLP? Could you point us to a link? I'd be interested in seeing what you have. TNX.
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    MakeReady · 21 days ago
    I did a scenario on the spread sheet ....... I thought I was being conservative.... I came out with a WORLD doom in 10 days ......... If you figure that one person infects 4 .....then by the time that 4 goes to home they each infect 4, then each of them infect 4 .....by the time day 10 comes around the whole globe plus the moon and mars has it .........hmmmmmm
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    Elea Baury · 21 days ago
    hello Hal! which model by which expert epidemiologist - virologist in the world did you take? thank you.
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    TL Spurlen · 21 days ago
    The normalcy bias is also known as the ostrich effect. It is also sometimes known as the incredulity response and analysis paralysis.

    In situations of extreme danger, some people enter a mental state that is known as the normalcy bias. In this state, people deny that what is happening to them is really taking place. The normalcy bias can affect people who are under threat of persecution-such as minority groups in times of war. The normalcy bias may also be experienced in times of economic turmoil. The normalcy bias has severe consequences. When people don’t face the facts of an imminent disaster such as financial crisis, or act to protect their loved ones or their assets from danger that might be developing around them, the negative effect that the disaster has on them is much greater. People who face the situation early and start taking measures to alleviate the impact that the disaster has on their loved ones and their assets are more likely to survive the disaster and even, in some cases, benefit from it.
  • This commment is unpublished.
    HJ Richards · 21 days ago
    Just looked at fux news and breitbart web pages, would never ow anything like what has told us MSM , all of them are a joke
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    Anthony · 21 days ago
    Hal, you posted those horrific infection and death toll numbers (112,000 dead) four days ago but I have seen no new updates. Has any new information come out of Hubei province or China on the current estimated deaths from this virus?
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    C D · 21 days ago
    Vaccine is already here, they just need to scare more people into making sure everybody takes it so they can make $$$

    https://patents.justia.com/patent/10130701?fbclid=IwAR1JYT36kiIuEfBYmMeTMay-4y5XUod3Ty-mezA8bk8KtVXe7-A9lzKXrm8
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      KayBee · 21 days ago
      That's for chickens, as in cluck-cluck chickens, who get their own coronaviruses. That patent you mention deals with vaccines for infectious bronchitis virus (IBV)-infected poultry:

      "Coronavirus avian infectious bronchitis virus."

      https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17296157
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    Rocky Mountain Beer Man · 21 days ago
    Yes, I'm putting beer in the bottle.
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    Mel Perry · 21 days ago
    Yikes...looks like the poop is ready to collide with the round oscillator.

    Viral....get Zinc folks. I'll be gulping a 50 mg tab once a day till this is over. Its not a bullet proof, but it greatly improves your immunity to a virus. It attaches to the receptor sites on cells so the virus can't.

    Hal, thanks for the info!
    • This commment is unpublished.
      Elea Baury · 21 days ago
      also Lysine and Elederberry and Cordyceps help to prevent viral load to stick and kill your cells
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      Rocky Mountain Beer Man · 21 days ago
      Will a few galvanized washers between your cheek and gum do the same thing?
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        Golf Romeo Romeo · 21 days ago
        Only if you stand on your head, drink that beer, and sing “Nearer to thee” at the same time
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        Mel Perry · 21 days ago
        Geepers! You might have trouble getting the dosage right but the chemicals could be there.
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    Sedge Hammer · 21 days ago
    If I could Hal, where did you get 65% of those infected will die? I've seen videos recently from Wuhan with people walking to the grocery store and the store being full of food. Plus he mentioned about people being sick and dying, nothing near that %.
    • This commment is unpublished.
      James Huff · 21 days ago
      Sedge Hammer, I came up with a 66% mortality and 34% recovery number similar to Hal's source from a letter to the WHO from the Chinese government which had numbers from last week, but was posted yesterday. (Take with a grain of salt, as it came from the CCP). According to China on the medical graph the WHO put out from their numbers "officially" reported. 1423 confirmed cases, 45 people recovered, 76 died. Now, if the percentages hold out, the death rate is almost 2 to 1 of those who recovered. We are not sure about the almost 1300 others, they are/were still being treated. China said today, they had almost 965 in serious condition out of 4,512 confirmed infections of Wuhan Pneumonia.

      China, of course, controls how the kits which detect the Corona virus are distributed. So, if the cases which are not severe or are a different strain, say, H1Nx of the influenza strain (replace x with one of the 18 variants), then this would not be confirmed as the Corona virus. Hospitals in China have orders to have patients waiting to be seen, to get clearance from the Ministry of Health. Thus, they can not be confirmed without a high level CCP official giving the Okay for the test. Thus, until now, keeping their numbers in check.

      I wonder if someone in China will lose their job over this? (too soon? )
      • This commment is unpublished.
        Sedge Hammer · 21 days ago
        https://www.zerohedge.com/health/many-planes-actually-made-it-out-wuhan-yesterday-and-today

        That's the flights that made it out of Wuhan the last 2 days. If it's as bad as it's being reported here and I'm not saying it isn't, but how could these leave or even anyone at the airport to run the airport? Nearly everyone in that city has to have it by now I would think, since it took them so long to shut the city down based on the numbers being reported.
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        Sedge Hammer · 21 days ago
        that's not nice...... I wonder why we haven't seen any pics coming out of the piles of the dead. Pics and vids are getting out. If the death toll was that high and this has been rolling since 1 Dec, I would think there'd be many piles.
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    KayBee · 21 days ago
    Yeah...that will never happen. How long is it taking WHO to even acknowledge how bad this already is?

    btw how do flu vaccines help out with "herd immunity" in the face of a non-flu pandemic? That's like saying you wont get smallpox because you were immunized against chickenpox.