The much heralded Ukraine "counteroffensive" starting point was clear to military tacticians from the beginning but for the rest of us it SEEMS to be getting confirmed now:  Zaporozhye.  Obvious question now is,  might this be a "feint?"

Here's the situation as of April 30, 2023:

Ukrainian formations are finishing preparations for the announced offensive. In the Zaporozhye region, a comprehensive training was held with reserve units to enter the designated area and organize communications in the field.

This map will help you understand each paragraph below:

A battalion of the 116th mechanized brigade of the 10th army corps of the Armed Forces of Ukraine arrived at the Orekhovsky area.  In addition, the command of the 128th Guards Rifle Brigade began moving assault groups to the front line. One of the units of the brigade arrived in Shcherbaki.

In Omelnik, a forward command post for a group of troops was equipped. The other day, Ukrainian signalmen established a closed communication channel between the 108th troop unit and the country's leadership in Kiev for interaction during the offensive.

Paratroopers of the 46th airborne brigade of the Airborne Forces of Ukraine were deployed to the Gulyai-Polye sector . At least one battalion of the formation was understaffing in Pavlograd in the Dnipropetrovsk region.

A group of special operations forces of Ukraine arrived at the Belogorye-Charivnoe line. SSO sniper crews equip firing points on the front line.

Over the past few days, fuel, ammunition and military equipment have been actively transported through the island of Khortytsya to the Zaporozhye direction.

Also, additional tactical aircraft Su-25 and MiG-29 from the base in Starokonstantinov flew to the airfields Shirokoe and Dolgintsevo near Zaporozhye and Krivoy Rog.


Needless to say, Russian military intelligence has been monitoring and sees everything described above - plus a LOT more.

The Russians have yet to deploy __any__ major portion of their army; the Wagner PMC has been doing the brunt of the work.

It seems obvious based on the way things are being laid out that Ukraine is "going for broke" with a "Hail Mary" type of counter-offensive.  If it succeeds, they're still in the game.  If it fails, Ukraine is done.

Given that reality, is is also clear to even the most casual observers that Russia's defense against the Ukraine counter-0ffensive, is likely to be horrifying. Deployment of Russian forces is such that Ukraine may find itself STOMPED at an order of magnitude not previously seen.

Whatever happens, it sure looks as though we are in a very small time window before it all starts.

One thing is certain: An awful lot of men are going to die.

All this, for what?   So Ukraine can join NATO and aim missiles at Russia?   

What a useless reason to kill so many.



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