The National Hurricane Center is watching a Tropical Depression weather system in the Caribbean which MODELS say will become a Hurricane and strike the Gulf Coast of Florida near Crystal River Wednesday.
From a "Discussion" at the National Hurricane Center:
"The very warm and deep waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico should support at least gradual strengthening during the next few days, tempered by moderate shear from a flat upper-level trough. However, this trough is forecast to amplify over the western Gulf of Mexico around Tuesday, which causes the shear to decrease near the cyclone in that time frame. There's a notable risk of rapid intensification while the system moves across the record warm eastern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico, which is highlighted by the recent HAFS and HWRF guidance. The new NHC forecast is raised from the previous one, near or above the modelconsensus, and could be too low. I'm reluctant to make any big changes to the forecast until we get more in-situ data, but the
upward overnight model trend certainly bears watching. Users are reminded to continue monitoring forecasts for any changes to thesystem's expected intensity as it approaches Florida."
Here is the official "Cone Map" showing the projected path and strengthening of the storm:
Weather models are in significant agreement over the path of the storm:
8/27 6z ICON is remarkably similar to its 0z run and is sticking to its landfall near Crystal River. #TD10 pic.twitter.com/fPMiBv2ZvT
— Florida Tropics (@FloridaTropics1) August 27, 2023
There is a significant difference between the National Hurricane Center and Weather Underground as to TIMING.
Weather Underground is reporting the storm may actually move so fast, it may not have time to deepen into a "major" hurricane, instead remaining around Category 1, but arriving in Florida around 2:00 AM this Wednesday morning:
You know the drill: Get emergency food, water, medicines you need to live on, fuel-up vehicles, have an evacuation plan and a place to go if you are told to leave immediately. Have flashlights (one for each room or one for each family member, spare batteries for each. Have a portable radio with spare batteries for news and official information if power goes off.
DON"T WAIT. If you wait until the storm gets very much closer, when you finally __do__ go out for fuel and food, you will find empty store shelves and empty gas stations. DON'T BE LIKE THOSE WHO WAIT.
