I am up in northeastern Pennsylvania, about 45 minutes west of Scranton, at the house I inherited when my mom died. I call this my "Bugout" location in case of economic collapse, social upheaval, or nuclear war. I thought I might be safe . . . until I learned something today that made my heart sink.
In a nuclear war, both Russia and the USA would target military sites in the opposing country. But if things go "all the way" and each side is taking losses that might cause them to lose, then there's the final round of nuclear attacks that target the large population centers so as to prevent the other side from rebuilding.
The largest city near me is Scranton, but it is a small city, population maybe 79,000. I looked on a list of the top U.S. cities by population, and Scranton isn't even in the top 350 cities. So that's a relief from a war-target standpoint. But there are other concerns.
The nearest military target to me up here in Pennsylvania is the Tobyhanna Army Depot. It is a significant target.
Tobyhanna Army Depot (TYAD) is the largest full-service electronics maintenance facility for the U.S. Department of Defense. Located in northeastern Pennsylvania, it provides crucial Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Cyber, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C5ISR) support for the Armed Forces.
So if Tobyhanna was, in fact, targeted by Russia, with one of its 800 kiloton nukes, according to NUKEMAP, the blast effects would cover the area shown below:
Notice the different colors to each circle? Here is what those colors mean:
I am well beyond all the colored circles shown on the Tobyhanna map above. So far, so good, for me.
But there is another military target near me, and it is quite significant, too: The Scranton Army Ammunition Plant.
That plant was just improved to increase the number of artillery shells it can produce. It used to be able to produce 22,000 shells a month. It has been improved to now provide 36,000 artillery shells per month. ALL of them are going to UKRAINE.
So Russia might have an especially keen desire to destroy that. Here is the NUKEMAP blast area for that facility:
When I first did the NUKEMAP computer model for an 800 kt Russian detonation, I found my house again, OUTSIDE all the colored circles, and I thought "We will be okay." Today I found out, maybe not.
The outer-most gray circle is the area in which the computer model shows a 1 psi "over-pressure."
So I asked AI "what would happen to a wood frame house hit by a 1 psi over pressure from a blast?"
AI replied:
A wood-frame house hit by 1 PSI of blast overpressure would likely suffer serious, potentially uninhabitable damage, including shattering windows and significant structural damage that requires major repair. The wood-frame construction's low resistance to blast loading means the impact could lead to collapsing walls or other failures, making the house unsafe to occupy.
Specific Effects on a Wood-Frame House
Structural Damage:
Wood-frame houses are particularly vulnerable to blast overpressure. While a 1 psi overpressure is less than what would completely destroy a building, it is enough to cause major structural distress.
Window and Glazing Damage:
Windows are likely to break at 1 psi of overpressure, which could turn glass into flying shrapnel.
Uninhabitable Conditions:
The combination of shattered windows and potential structural compromise would render the home uninhabitable.
Secondary Effects:
Beyond the direct impact, the blast wind that accompanies the pressure wave would cause further damage by throwing objects and people into walls and other hard surfaces, increasing injuries and property damage.
Context of Blast Damage
Blast Overpressure:
This is a rapid, high-pressure wave caused by an explosion that travels outward and can cause devastating damage.
Wood-Frame Vulnerability:
Unlike heavier-framed structures, wood-frame buildings have a low resistance to the lateral forces of a blast, making them far more susceptible to damage.
Progression of Damage:
At higher pressures, the damage escalates rapidly. Overpressures above 5 psi can destroy cities, whereas 1 psi is considered a level that makes a house uninhabitable
Now, I am BEYOND the area of 1 psi over-pressure, but I'm only about 2 miles beyond that area. So I asked AI what would happen to the house if it was only half the 1 psi, or 0.5 psi. SAME ANSWER!
So one of the people I know up here is both an architect, and an engineer. I spoke to him and asked "What's the big deal if a wood frame house is hit by a 1 psi over-pressure? That doesn't sound like a lot."
He replied, "Think again."
He went on to explain that "1 pound per square inch (psi) may not sound like a lot, but let's explore that."
He asked me, "what is the area (in inches) of one square foot? I replied "Twelve inches by twelve inches is 144 square inches."
Then he explained it: 1 pound per square inch equals 144 pounds per square foot, over EVERY square foot of the house, at the same time." He told me, "that will rip the roof right off, or cave-it-in, and knock all the walls down because that weight, that pressure, will literally rip the nails right out of the wood studs where they are nailed to the rest of the wood frame."
He went on. . . "You know that there are multiple 4' x 8' sheets of either 1/2" or 5/8" plywood sheathing that make up the walls. A four foot by eight foot piece of plywood has a surface area of 32 feet. 32 feet times 144 pounds per square foot is 4,608 POUNDS hitting each sheet of plywood. What do YOU think will happen when that kind of force hits plywood?"
Then he said "Even if it is only HALF, meaning 0.5 psi, that still means 2,304 pounds of force hitting each piece of plywood!"
My heart sank.
Here I am for over two years, thinking I was far enough away from "the troubles" to be safe, and now I have to worry about a 1 psi over-pressure.
It has to be noted that there are Mountains between my house and the Scranton Army Ammunition plant, and perhaps those mountains will break-up the shock wave, or re-direct it, or at least lessen it so that I don't wake up to being flattened to death in my house.
All this worry and bullshit because Ukraine wants to join NATO. This bullshit has to stop. Tell Ukraine "no."
