URGENT! Hurricane Beryl Course Change: TEXAS LANDFALL MONDAY

URGENT! Hurricane Beryl Course Change: TEXAS LANDFALL MONDAY

The forecast models for Hurricane Beryl have dramatically changed and now show a direct impact to south TEXAS as early as this weekend.  People in south Texas are urged to prepare immediately with emergency food, water, medicine, electric generator & fuel, flashlight(s) batteries and such. Gas-up the car! 48-72 Hours to prepare.

GET YOUR SUPPLIES RIGHT NOW.  TODAY!  DO NOT WAIT  If you wait, the store shelves and gas stations will be cleaned-out and empty.   You will find yourself without supplies.

The computer models have almost **ALL** shifted to a landfall in TEXAS:

 

From the National Hurricane Center --

526 
WTNT32 KNHC 050846
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL022024
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 05 2024

...HURRICANE BERYL CLOSE TO LANDFALL IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, STORM SURGE, AND DAMAGING WAVES
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BERYL MOVES ASHORE...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 86.9W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF TULUM MEXICO
ABOUT 780 MI...1250 KM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa
Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Cabo Catoche

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto
Costa Maya to Chetumal
* The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico north of Cancun to
Campeche

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Coast of Belize from south of Chetumal to Belize City

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests in northeastern Mexico and southern Texas should closely
monitor the progress of Beryl. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
will likely be issued for that region later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located 
near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 86.9 West. Beryl is moving 
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west- 
northwestward motion is expected during the next day or so, with the 
center expected to make landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula in the 
next few hours.  Beryl is expected to emerge over the southwestern 
Gulf of Mexico tonight and then move northwestward toward 
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas by the end of the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher 
gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected after Beryl moves inland and 
crosses the Yucatan Peninsula, but slow re-intensification is 
expected once Beryl moves back over the Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beryl can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area on the Yucatan Peninsula later this morning.  Winds are
expected to first reach tropical storm strength shortly, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along
the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area of the Yucatan Caribbean coast this morning and over the
Yucatan Gulf coast later today.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area along portions of the coast of Belize this morning.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to
6 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the east
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula within the hurricane warning area
and by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level along the west
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals 
of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the 
Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding 
anticipated. 

Heavy rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with locally higher amounts is 
expected across portions of northeastern Mexico and South Texas by 
Sunday into the coming week. 

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall and flash flooding 
associated with Hurricane Beryl, please see the National Weather 
Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at 
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk 
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?ero

SURF:  Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting
portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the
Yucatan Peninsula.  The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico
and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells
are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Papin
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