As of 3:00 PM eastern US time today, Friday, 29 November 2024, there are 24 hours remaining in the NOTAM issued by Russia over their Kapustin Yar missile launch facility, presumably for Russia's retaliation attack upon Ukraine.
The photo above shows Transporter, Erector, Launcher (TEL) trucks in Russia which intel says are loaded with Russia's new "Oreshkin" Intermediate Range Ballistic Missiles (IRBMs). These are believed to be (some) of the TEL's to be used against Ukraine.
Intel suggests there will be "considerably more" such TEL's for the strike Russia is planning. The total is not yet known.
The first - and only - time Russia used the new "Oreshkin" missile against Ukraine, two weeks ago, the warheads and their sub-munitions did not carry a combat load of explosives. The kinetic energy of the falling warheads did all the damage. Intel says the missiles shown above ARE loaded with combat explosives.
Based on the new appearance of the TELs above, and the expiration time of Russia's NOTAM, it is logical to believe Russia's retaliatory strike upon Ukraine will take place within the next 24 hours.
While the precise timing is not yet known, the last time Russia launched this, they provided 30 minutes notice to the United States over the nuclear deconfliction communications circuit. This communications circuit is set up so there are no false alarms between the nuclear super-powers when one launches a missile detectable by warning satellites.
As the first such missile took off for Ukraine two weeks ago, warning satellites DID trigger an alert as to a Russian missile launch.
The ignition signature of the missile engine is such that these missiles can be detected at launch, and under our system, such missiles are "presumed to be nuclear."
A major sticking point with the coming launch is that Russian television posted missile travel times to US bases throughout the Middle East, the US base on Guam, the US bases in Hawaii and in Alaska, the US nuclear silos in Montana and in North Dakota.
In order for Russia to use the Oreshkin against Guam, Hawaii, Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota, the missiles would have to be launched from the far east area of Russia, out by the Koreas.
This begot concern in the US that Russia might retaliate against the United States for supplying and guiding-to-target, missiles used by Ukraine to strike interior Russia over the past two weeks.
Russia has publicly warned they feel they are entitled to attack the military facilities of countries supplying weapons to Ukraine, which are used to strike interior Russia.
There are no NOTAM's in far eastern Russia at this time.
The real "rub" over these missiles is that Russia doesn't have to care who knows when or in what direction they will be fired; there is NO DEFENSE for these missiles. No existing missile defense system can stop them.
