Satellite imagery from Iran reveals a crucial impact on Iranian weapons-making ability. Before and after images, below, show that the Israeli attack __did__ achieve a very significant result.
In Parchin, Iran, is a Rocket Motor Casting facility. As part of that facility, there are buildings that mix solid rocket fuel.
Three of those buildings and a nearby storage warehouse, were demonstrably struck by Israeli missiles, as shown in the before and after imagery below:
First, a satellite image of the entire facility, BEFORE the attack:
AFTER:
Now, a crisper satellite image of the facility, with labeling showing what was hit:
Wider-area-view including destroyed warehouse:
What makes this so serious for Iran is that the machinery used to mix solid rocket fuel is EXPORT CONTROLLED. It cannot be shipped by anyone, from anywhere, to anywhere, without special licenses, which Iran cannot get because of SANCTIONS.
Iran obtained the present rocket-fuel-mixing-machinery on the sly, in violation of Sanctions.
Now that those machines have been hit, and presumably severely damaged, Iran (presumably) cannot mix solid rocket fuel.
So whatever Missile inventory they have in their country, is ALL they have now.
Iran may be able to build more missiles, but after the Israeli strike, they have no way to mix FUEL for those missiles to make them go.
This is one very serious result of the Israeli attack; not something Iran can quickly recover from. None of the countries that manufacture the fuel-mixing machinery, will grant an export license for Iran to get new machines or even spare parts for the existing machines.
So unless the Iranians can self-manufacture the machines, or the parts needed to perhaps repair the damaged machines, Iran's ability to wage missile war is now stopped at whatever missile inventory Iran presently has.
Now, it is widely known that Iran's present missile inventory is very numerous. There is no doubt Iran could launch utterly crippling attacks with it. But for how long? And when those missiles run out, what then?
Very big questions are being raised inside and outside of Iran after this Israeli strike. Serious questions.
If the Iranians choose to strike back - and they very much __can__, with devastating barrages against Israel -- they absolutely __can__ inflict horrifying damage upon the entirety of Israel. The damage, destruction and death would be unfathomable for Israel.
But once that's done, then what?
They can't do a ground invasion; the logistics would have their people out in the open and vulnerable for far too long, just trying to GET TO Israel.
They don't have the "lift" necessary to fly them over all that open territory. They don't have a big enough Navy to float them to Israel. And they presently don't have permission from any of the countries they'd have to cross, to GET TO Israel.
One remedy Iran may be able to access is that Russia, or North Korea, or perhaps even India or Pakistan can help Iran repair or replace the solid rocket fuel mixing machinery. But that will take time.
Prudence dictates an excruciatingly careful decision-making process by the Iran government as to whether or not they retaliate -- now. They might find themselves WANTING to retaliate now, but realizing it may be better to wait until they get the rocket fuel mixing issues resolved before they do anything.
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