The Israeli Security Cabinet has given Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant the green light to act against Hezbollah, even if it leads to an all-out war.
2:11 PM EDT 18 Sept 2024
Developing . . .
Russian Foreign Ministry: 'The attack on communications devices in Lebanon is a comprehensive act of war and aims to provoke a major war in the region'
UPDATE 6:40 PM EDT --
I have spent the past few hours speaking to my former colleagues in the Intelligence Community (IC) from around the world. Several I personally worked with during my years working with the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force, where, as regular readers know, I handled national security intelligence, terrorism, and foreign counter-intelligence.
To a man, each and every former colleague in the IC told me they believe Israel is in for a surprise when they enter Lebanon.
They went on to explain that, regardless of communications being down, every Lebanese village in the South has hundreds of local garrison units and independently functioning cells for Hezbollah.
One colleague in particular, with whom I had dealings when I traveled for the FBI to Brazil in January, 2005, and who provided me with a USB memory stick to give to a guy in Curitiba, Brazil back in 2005 prior to the start of the Israel-Hezbollah war in '06, a war in which the US helped Hezbollah - yes, you read that correctly -- told me: "If Israel couldn't win in 2006, they certainly cannot win in 2024, but the war will be more destructive than before. Both for Israel and Lebanon."
Of all the information given to me this afternoon, the most relevant was this from one former IC colleague. He told me "People need to understand that you cannot defeat an organization like Hezbollah, which is interwoven in the civilian population of the country. They have schools, hospitals, bakeries, factories, etc. and they will simply recruit new fighters when need arises."
It appears we will all get to see if his assessment is correct, very soon.
Israel is moving many troops, and much heavy armor toward the Lebanon Border tonight - as you read this.
Moreover, the Lebanese Foreign Minister, in an unprecedented statement to the Lebanese state, said today:
"No one can ask Hezbollah to calm down after the attack that occurred, Hezbollah's response to the attack is necessary."
With this statement the Lebanese government is now openly giving Hezbollah free play to respond, instead of asking it to calm tensions.
This is unprecedented.
With the backing of the Lebanese government, Hezbollah will be emboldened to act much harder than before, when they tried to appease the government to at least some extent.
STILL MORE:
Iran's supreme leader said publicly today: We stand with Hezbollah against Israel. There is no other option for us .
Meanwhile, in Lebanon at this hour (6:15 PM EDT) a wave of Israeli Airstrikes moments ago against Southern Lebanon, with Strikes reported against the Towns of Mays al-Jabal, Blida, Aitaroun, Khiyam, Sheheen, and Taybeh.
