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About 30 minutes ago, a former colleague from my years with the FBI Joint Terrorism Task Force (JTTF) put me in touch with a foreign Intel guy tasked with the Middle East situation.
THAT foreign Intel guy informed me that "Senior Iranian decision-makers have authorized "limited engagement" by Hezbollah, against Israel."
I did not do a news story on that because it was too "iffy" for me to stick my neck out without corroboration.
About five minutes ago, a SECOND guy I know from the Intel Community corroborated the information and he got it from someone who was **NOT** the foreign intel guy that I got it from.
Trouble with this is simple: Just today, Israel publicly announced they will attack Iran if Hezbollah in Lebanon enters the Israel-Hamas conflict.
If Israel actually meant what it said publicly, and was not merely posturing, then Iran giving a "go" to Hezbollah would necessarily mean that Israel WILL attack Iran.
When THAT takes place, the Middle East and possibly the world, will explode in warfare.
Depending on what Hezbollah chooses to do, Israel may - or may not - acknowledge that "Hezbollah has entered the war."
Perhaps Hezbollah may just step-up it's northern attacks a notch . . . . not really noticeable.
If Hezbollah keeps it low profile Israel MAY not acknowledge Hezbollah's entry, so they won't be compelled by their own rhetoric to then attack Iran.
I suspect, however, with their very significant Intel capabilities, Israel said this today because they KNEW Iran was about to give a "Go" to Hezbollah.
Now, I am told, that "Limited Go" has been given.
If, on the other hand, Hezbollah makes some moves that are big, bold, and unmistakable, then Israel might be FORCED to acknowledge Hezbollah has entered, and then would be compelled (in theory) by their own public rhetoric to attack Iran.
If Iran is attacked, they have already made clear publicly, they will "block the strait of Hormuz" which would instantly cut-off about a fifth of the volume of the world's total oil consumption.
About twenty-percent of the global oil supply passes through the Strait on a daily basis.
An average of 20.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, condensate, and oil products, passed through Hormuz in January-September 2023, data from analytics firm Vortexa showed.
A shock drop of that volume of oil and oil products, would cause a cascading failure of the global economy which would likely be unstoppable.
Repeating: TWO sources have told me tonight, Iran has given Hezbollah authorization for a "limited engagement" against Israel. When it may start is anyone's guess. I suspect it will be almost immediate.
We may all wake up Monday morning to a very different world.
UPDATE 8:13 PM EDT --
The oil people have NOT heard this yet. Oil futures are still down. Let's see how long it takes them to hear it . . . .
UPDATE 8:16 PM EDT --
Now being told the Israeli government is coming under growing pressure from security establishment hawks to launch a pre-emptive strike on Hezbollah in Lebanon.
