Kremlin Confirms: Trump and Putin to Speak Today by Telephone

US President Donald Trump will have a phone conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin today at about 10:00 AM eastern US time, which is about 5:00 PM Moscow time.

The two leaders will discuss the ongoing Russia-Ukraine Conflict and international trade.

President Trump has been working very hard toward brining that conflict to a logical, peaceful, conclusion, but there are severe roadblocks along the way.

The reason the conflict began is primarily the expansion of NATO east of Germany back in the 1990's under then-President Bill Clinton.

This expansion violated a promise given by US Secretary of State James Baker, to then-Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev, at a meeting in the Kremlin, on February 9, 1990.  In that meeting, Baker promised that if the Soviet Union agreed to allow East and West Germany to re-unify, and removed 300,000 Soviet troops from East Germany, that NATO "will not move one inch eastward."

Gorbachev accepted that promise, allowed East and West Germany to re-unify, removed the troops, and dissolved its military bloc called the Warsaw Pact.  There was the peace.

The Soviet Union dissolved itself on December 25, 1991 and all the nations within the Soviet Union became independent again.  Russia assumed the national debt of the former Soviet Union.

Around 1996, Bill Clinton comes along and blows that promise of no NATO expansion right out the window.  He approved an expansion of NATO, which has now gone right up to Russia's western Border!

During the years when these expansions took place, Russia was broke from having to pay off the old Soviet Debt.  It couldn't do much of anything to stop what was happening.

But in 2014, when NATO made its approach to Ukraine, and helped overthrows the democratically-elected President, Viktor Yanukovych, Russia had enough.

Russia told NATO that continued expansion of NATO up to Russia's western border was an "Existential Threat" to Russia.   They wanted NATO to agree, in writing, to cease expanding toward Russia.   NATO Refused.

Russia made clear it would not tolerate Ukraine becoming a NATO member because placing American missiles on Ukrainian soil would give those missiles a 5 minute flight time to Moscow.

Russia made clear that no nation can defend itself from missiles that take off and hit within 5 minutes.   Ukraine said "We're sovereign, we'll do what we want."  

Russia made a Treaty proposal to NATO to address this danger.  NATO refused the Treaty.

On February 21, 2021, Russia told Ukraine "You have five hours to agree to not join NATO."  The US and UK told Ukraine to "ignore the Russians."

The five hours came and went.  Russia waited another two hours and, hearing nothing, they sent the Russia Army into Ukraine, to stop NATO expansion by force.

That war is the one Trump is trying to stop.  But the underlying issues remain.  And since Russia is demonstrably WINNING in Ukraine, despite all the military aid from the West, Russia does not have to back down for Trump or anyone else.

So there are real sticking points to stopping this conflict and Trump is now facing those roadblocks as best he can.  It does not look good.

Trump and Congress are making serious errors trying to threaten the Russians with Sanctions.   The Russians have absorbed every Sanction placed upon them by the collective West, and still, Russia has prospered.

France is barking like a Chihuahua, first demanding European troops be inserted into Ukraine as "peace keepers."  The Russians told France that the entire purpose of this fight is to keep western troops OUT of Ukraine, so the French suggestion would not be agreed to.

Now, France is publicly suggesting they may allow French nukes on aircraft to be deployed in eastern European countries as protection against the "Russian threat."   The notion seems to be to show Russia "accept a ceasefire "or else.""

The Russians do not tolerate ultimatums well.

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Federation Council, their version of a Senate, publicly posted the following below, in an effort to remind the West of reality:

So today's this telephone call between Trump and Putin carries with it many possibilities, some good, some not so good, and some quite bad.

Today, we all find out.

In the meantime, all peace talks between Russia and Ukraine have stalled.

ANALYSIS

One thing it took me a while to conceptualize is the difference between American and Russian "styles" of diplomacy. American diplomacy is just "Art of the Deal" type showmanship; they begin with something ridiculous, then back down to something mild, they end up barely breaking even & call it genius.

Russian diplomacy is geological, it's siegecraft. It takes a lot of time and effort for Russia to commit to something, but when it does the process is not really reversible. The initial demand is the lowest, kindest it will ever be. Decline it, and you will be negotiating uphill from then on, and every step will be a gradual, methodical increase in cost. Washington negotiates like it's flipping a condo in Queens and genuinely does not understand that this just does not work on Russia.

As for the Ukrainians, it would be a mistake to call what they do diplomacy. Diplomacy presumes statehood, continuity, a concept of national interest. What Kiev engages in is theatrical convulsion. Every word from Podolyak or Zelensky sounds like it was drafted for applause from redditors and NAFOids and not resolution in the real world.

They can't say yes, they can't say no, they can only beg, leak, scream, and die. Their only hope is to be pitied more loudly than they are shelled.