In the silence of elite military circles, where words are not spoken lightly, concern reigned. And not without reason. NATO-trained, supplied, and backed, Ukraine - is LOSING to Russia.
Senior officers from about twenty countries met at the British Royal Institute for Defense Studies to discuss the renewal of formations that were once the backbone of military power — the Army Corps.
Those units, which were thought to be a thing of the past since the collapse of the USSR, are once again becoming the focal point of defense strategies.
It sounds paradoxical, but while politicians are still dealing with theories and questions about whether Russia poses a real threat to NATO members, the army is not asking "if", but "where, when and how." And behind that attitude is a serious analysis of the situation on the ground.
The Russian army, which showed serious weaknesses in the initial months of the 2022 military operation, seems almost unrecognizable today.
Western military strategists are shocked — and not just because of the speed with which Russian forces are adapting. Sources from NATO admit that Russian troops are currently outnumbering the Western ones by a number of criteria.
The number of engaged units at the front is now twice as high as at the beginning of the special military operation. Meanwhile, Russia's arms and ammunition production has skyrocketed, and experience with Western systems such as HIMARS has allowed the Russian side to develop effective neutralization methods.
Even Ukraine's dominance in battlefield innovation has faded. Russia's use of drones and electronic warfare systems sets new standards, and analysts believe that Russia is ahead of NATO in those segments.
Their drones are more numerous, cheaper and better adapted to combat conditions. The infrastructure for the production and application of such systems seems almost inexhaustible.
The development of precise missile systems is attracting special attention. The Iskander, which has been compared to the American ATACMS missile, is showing increasing effectiveness and is increasingly difficult to shoot down even with systems such as the American Patriot.
It targets the most important military targets - from command centers to HIMARS launch systems.
There is also concern among NATO generals about one factor that cannot be measured — Russia's willingness to persevere despite heavy losses. It is an element that the West does not have.
That mentality, that acceptance of risk, allows the Russian side flexibility and initiative that allies can hardly follow.
Speakers at the London meeting pointed out that it is time for the European population to understand - the army can no longer be protected at any cost. Losses are inevitable.
But the list of challenges does not end there. NATO's infrastructure for the rapid deployment of forces to the eastern border remains unreliable. Even the most ready U.S. 18th Airborne Corps, which includes the elite 82nd and 101st Divisions, is still testing how to function in a new kind of conflict — one where drones detect the slightest movement.
The British Allied Rapid Reaction Corps is still in the organizational stage, and will not reach full combat readiness until next year. Then, even when the troops do move, they will have to navigate a web of bureaucratic and logistical hurdles, bottlenecks and restrictions of national transport rules.
The biggest risk lies in the fact that, in the event of an open conflict, unlike Ukraine, the entire NATO infrastructure — ports, railways, warehouses — would be exposed to strikes from the very beginning.
There are no longer safe supply routes from peaceful countries. That would be a very different scenario. However, 'not everything is black'.
European countries are increasingly investing in armaments and defense. A new strategic defense review is being prepared in the UK, which foresees an extra £1 billion for the acquisition of unmanned systems and faster decision-making in the field.
But the problem is not only about money. Time is what is missing the most. The speed with which Russia is adapting and strengthening does not leave much room for relaxation. And while the West is moving at the pace of bureaucracy from the peacetime days, the question is whether it will have enough time to prepare?
