The White House has put itself and the country in a bad situation but doesn’t realize it yet.

Around April 10th China-to-USA trade shut down over Tariffs.   

I reported last Friday night on my radio show, that at least eighty (80) ocean-container vessels departed China last week,  EMPTY.  They had to head to other countries to get loads  -- maybe.

In the "normal" course of manufacturing in China and shipping to the USA:

It takes ~30 days for ocean shipping containers to go from China to Los Angeles.

~45 days to Houston by sea

~45 days to Chicago by train

~55 days to New York by sea

That means that there are still no economic / supply-chain effects of what was done on April 10th until about May 10th.

Around that time (it’s already started to happen) trucking work is going to dry up. Warehouses will start doing layoffs because no labor is needed to unload containers. Some products will be out of stock, reducing the need for shipping labor.

All this will start in the Los Angeles area.

After about 2 weeks, it’ll start hitting Chicago and Houston.

Let’s say the White House, after 3 weeks, changes its mind, on May 31st.

“This isn’t working out like we thought it would. Tariffs back to 0.”

Let’s say China says “bygones be bygones, we’ll go back to how things were”.

Let’s say every factory in China that got screwed by their orders being cancelled says the same thing “no problem, we’ll make and ship.”

The problem is, even under the most favorable conditions of China and the factories restarting economic ties as though nothing happened, it will be at least another 30 days before economic activity is revived.

And that’s just in LA.

In Chicago/Houston, you’ll need to wait another 45 days after the manufacturing/shipping restart.

New York, at that point, will still be getting containers from before April 10th, they will then have 50 days (May 31 minus April 10) of zero economic activity at the ports, in trucking of Chinese goods, in warehousing.

The whole situation is a bit like the COVID lockdowns. Once you shut down, it takes a long time to get economic activity back to where it was, if you ever can.

And again, this assumes, that China and its factories, which make things you can’t buy elsewhere, will start right back up again as though nothing happened, which is unlikely.

It’s almost like we’re speeding towards a brick wall but the driver of the car doesn’t see it yet.

By the time he does, it’ll be too late to hit the brakes.

I began warning you of this last week.  I even posted stories about it, strongly suggesting you get the products you need and get done: the repairs of things like cars, and replacement of things like Home Appliances, while there is still stock of those items here in the USA.   I warned, the freight activity here in the US is already dropping like a rock, and that means inventories are being drawn-down.  Things are going to start running out.

Now that I have the time-line for typical ocean freight, as reported above, we can now logically assess the timing of the trade tariff impacts here in the USA.

Today is April 24.  The shipping from China halted on April 10, so we are fourteen days into no new freight heading out of China.  Sixteen days from now, on about Saturday, May 10, the SHTF starting in LA. from no inbound freight.

Fourteen or so days after that, ~ May 24, SHTF in Houston and Chicago.   

By May 30, SHTF in New York City. 

No freight.

Get what you need now because toward the end of this month, the shortages and outages will hit us like a bomb.  There is no avoiding it - it has already happened.

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