Russia's new tactic first begins with local attacks on frontline and border regions – most notably Sumy and Chernihiv oblasts, which are suffering the most at present. Electricity Services are being destroyed.
Kharkiv, Odesa, Mykolaiv and Dnipropetrovsk oblasts are also being struck less intensively but still regularly.
Across all these areas the Russians are methodically trying to destroy the energy system in its entirety: local generation, transmission through major Ukrenergo, Ukraine's state-owned electricity transmission system operator, substations and even distribution within large cities via oblast operator substations.
In August and September these strikes were conducted mainly by drones, typically around 10 UAVs per target, although in some cases the number rose to as many as 40.
Another change is that the Russians no longer launches one large wave at once, as before. Instead they strike in series, sending a few drones every hour. Ukrainian power engineers say they have not seen this tactic until now.
Drone strikes are then followed by heavy attacks on generation facilities, including the use of ballistic missiles."
"What Ukrainians should prepare for: prolonged emergency and scheduled outages. Experience from recent years shows that in one or two attacks the Russians can knock out more generation than Ukraine can restore over an entire summer.
'This winter will certainly be one of shortages. Emergency outages are already in effect across almost the whole country. Most likely, in winter Ukraine will face a '4×2' scenario: four hours without power, two hours with it,' forecasts a representative of one state energy company.
It is already clear that the hardest hit areas will be frontline and border regions – above all Sumy and Chernihiv, with Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, Odesa and Kherson oblasts also under threat."
