The European Union, and possibly the United States, want a 30 day truce in the Russia-Ukraine conflict and are threatening Russia with more sanctions. But it can BACKFIRE, causing a debt spiral.
The Chart of 10 year US Treasuries Yield (blue, RS) v. Oil (red, LS) shows why Putin continues to hold more leverage than Wall St. or Washington, DC are willing to admit: Sanctioning Russian oil would likely send 10y UST yields to levels that trigger a US (& global) debt spiral.
Here is the chart, full-sized. Click image twice to fully enlarge:
This is the only chart that really matters for the world right now.
There is a gigantic correlation between the Sanctions being talked about, and spikes in UST Yields over increased risk. But if/when the yield rate of Treasuries hits above 5%, it will mathematically trigger an UNSTOPPABLE Global Debt Spiral; the whole thing comes crashing down.
Trump and Bessent are well aware of this. So is Russia. So is the rest of the world.
So while the EU and US think they can publicly push Russia into a Ceasefire, the reality is they would utterly destroy their own financial systems if they try.
Russia knows that the only reason the West wants a 30-day ceasefire is to re-arm Ukraine. But at this moment, Russia has ALL the military advantage in Ukraine. Stopping the fight now would only harm Russia's position.
Russia has said it is willing to have a 30-day ceasefire with security guarantees of no re-arming Ukraine. The West won't even talk about that. So the West's intentions seem quite clear: They want to re-arm Ukraine to Russia's disadvantage then resume the fighting anew. Russia has made clear they won't do that.
At the very beginning of this Russia-Ukraine Conflict, Russia made clear what it wants:
Ukraine is to be disarmed and de-Nazified
Ukraine cannot join NATO or any other military bloc
There can be no foreign troops or weapons systems on Ukraine soil
As the war progressed and Russia triumphed in Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson, Zaporozhye, and Crimea, those territories voted to secede from Ukraine and join Russia. They did and were accepted into Russia.
Thus, they are now - and forever - Russia territory.
Ukraine is flatly opposed to this reality and will not seem to agree. They have no choice unless they continue fighting - but that will likely result in Ukraine losing the rest of their country.
So now, Ukraine and the West want a 30-day ceasefire to shore-up Ukraine and Russia is not likely (at all) to fall into that trap.
The West thinks it can force Russia to do so with the threat of oil sanctions, but as shown above, imposing those sanctions would push the Risk up on US Treasuries, to a yield level that will trigger unstoppable debt spiral and financial collapse of the United States. So the West is in a bind. Russia is not.
Even if the West goes-for-broke and imposes the sanctions, causing the yield to rise and beginning the debt spiral, Russia is in a position to survive it all. The West is not.
Russia has all the energy it needs and the fuel to power that energy. Russia has all the food it needs. Russia has far more manufacturing now than in the past. Russia would be OK. A rough ride, but they would be ok.
The West would be functionally obliterated with financial system collapse, little to no manufacturing, and a food supply that would be greatly stressed because so much of it is processed outside the West - and all that processing would cease because foreign countries would likely have to halt accepting the US Dollar as payment because it is backed by nothing and the US Debt is now almost unserviceable.
