OPINION PIECE: I think I've figured out why our "INTEL" people have gotten it so wrong on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the likelihood that Russia will HIT us here in the USA over what we've been doing: NONE of those Intel Guys has ever been punched in the face. I'm serious!
Growing up, most guys my age (62) got into more than a few physical fights. Usually at school - or after school - over some bullshit that happened.
Those fights usually happened because one guy pushed another guy . . . and pushed . . . and pushed . . . . and pushed some more. Sooner or later, the guy being pushed hauled-off and knocked the living shit outta the guy who was bothering him.
Same thing with a schoolyard bully. Everyone was afraid of him. He got away with it over and over again. Then, one day, he bullied the wrong kid, or bullied someone again who had finally had enough, and . . . . WHACK . . . . the kid knocked the living shit outta the bully.
That's us, with Russia.
We have pushed and pushed and pushed some more with this Ukraine thing. We tried to recruit Ukraine into the western spere of influence in 2013-2014. We told them we wanted to put American missile defenses on their soil. Just TRYING to do that was "push" #1.
Back in the 1990's, then US President George HW Bush (the father), PROMISED the then-Soviet Union "NATO will not move one inch eastward" if they allowed East and West Germany to re-unify. It was a rock solid promise by a sitting US President. The soviets agreed and the two Germanys were re-united.
Bill Clinton got into the US Presidency and he welched on that promise. NATO began expanding eastward toward Russia's border. But at the time, Russia couldn't do anything about it because the Soviet Union had collapsed and dissolved itself, and Russia was paying off all of the Soviet Debts.
So NATO began expanding more and more and more. Putting new base after new base on all these new NATO countries. All of them with missiles aimed at . . . . . . . . Russia.
When moving to the western spere of influence was rejected by Ukraine President Viktor Yanukovych, we fomented, financed, and facilitated his violent overthrow! That was "push" #2.
When Ukraine's government collapsed, who was right there to finance candidates for a new government? The US and EU. We installed a puppet government in Ukraine. That was "push" #3.
Once we got "our guys" elected, we had Ukraine agree to put a NATO Naval Base on Crimea in the Black Sea! The Black Sea is Russia's only warm water naval port. Most of its other ports freeze-over in Winter, and now Ukraine was going to put a NATO base there??? This was "push" #4.
Ruassia exercised its treaty rights, and increased it troop levels at that base, to the maximum allowed by Treaty. Those troops began going out and talking to residents of Crimea, telling them they could secede from Ukraine and come home to Russia. After all, Crimea had only been part of Ukraine for about 50 years since Nikita Krushchev GAVE Crimea to Ukraine.
A public Referendum was held, under the watchful eyes of United Nations observers. The vote was held and 96% of the people of Crimea voted to leave Ukraine and rejoin Russia. The US and the EU utterly rejected that vote, calling it a fraud, and then claiming that Russia was "occupying" the land which had voted to secede!
Next, we told "our guys" in Ukraine to start massing troops against the eastern Oblasts (states) of Luhansk and Donetsk, because that's where the political support for Yanukovych (and for Russia) existed. We wanted those people ethnically-cleansed OUT of the eastern oblasts. This was "push" #5.
Ukraine massed the troops and they started firing mortars and artillery into the civilian areas of those two Oblasts. That was "push" #6.
It was then, that Russia started putting "Little Green Men" into Luhansk and Donetsk; Russian troops, without insignia or flags, to help Luhansk and Donetsk fight-off the attacking Ukraine Army.
In 2014, with hostilities between Ukraine, Luhansk, and Donetsk having gone on for months, all the parties agreed to a peace conference in Minsk, Belarus. In attendance was Ukraine President Poroshenko, Representatives from Luhansk and Donetsk, French President Francois Hollande, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
They negotiated for nineteen hours straight! They came to an agreement that would halt the hostilities. Everyone signed.
But what Russia did not know . . . which only came to light after the Russia-Ukraine conflict began, was that Ukraine, France, and Germany all went to the peace conference on a DECEPTION! They had NO INTENTION of carrying out any of the terms negotiated! ! ! !
This was revealed about 6 months onto the Russia-Ukraine conflict when former French President Francois Hollande admitted in a TV interview "We only signed the Minsk Agreement to buy time for Ukraine to arm for war with Russia."
A few weeks later, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel was asked about Francois Hollande's remarks and she confirmed - they only went to Minsk "to buy time for Ukraine to arm for war with Russia."
Think about that for a minute. The elected LEADERS of two NATO-member countries, perpetrated deliberate FRAUD at a peace negotiation, designed to stop a war. They went knowing they were going to deceive ! ! ! ! !
What kind of psychopath goes to a peace negotiation, for a situation where hundreds of people are being KILLED, and attends that peace negotiation with the intent to deceive??? Yet that is what Francois Hollande of France, and Angela Merkel of Germany actually did.
That . . . was a big "push." Push #7. In making this push, NATO blew-out all of its credibility. They negotiated in bad faith with the intention to deceive, and DID deceive.
So now, Russia sees that it is faced with a NATO that did not honor its promise to not move one inch eastward, forcibly, violently, overthrew the government of Ukraine to oust President Yanukovych, and who committed deliberate fraud in a peace negotiation.
In December, 2021, Russia offered a Treaty to secure "iron-clad, legally enforceable security guarantees" to protect itself from NATO Expansion.
The West immediately laughed it off and threw the proposal away.
In January, 2022, Russia submitted the proposed Treaty again, only this time it ended with "If Russia cannot obtain iron-clad, legally enforceable security guarantees via Diplomatic means, it will secure them through military, or military-technical means."
It took the collective west about two weeks to laugh at this (again) and discard it (again).
On February 21, 2022, Russia telephoned the President of Ukraine and told him "Ukraine has five hours to agree not to join NATO." Ukraine's president called the US and the UK for advice and both told him "Ignore the Russian ultimatum." That was "push" #8.
Russia waited the five hours and was told "Ukraine is a sovereign country, we will do what we will do with NATO." Push #9.
Two hours later, the Russians said "Oh yea? Here. Meet the Russian Army." And the Russian army crossed the border into Ukraine.
Prior to this, ALL the Intel guys in the West, confidently said the Russians won't do anything. ALL of those intel guys were wrong.
Now, at this point, with an actual invasion taking place, one would think the West would rethink what it was doing. Nope! Instead, the West started pushing even harder!
Supplying Ukraine with money. Ammunition, Artillery shells. Advisors. Then, armored personnel carriers, then M1A1 Abrams tanks, then M1A2 Tanks. Then HIMARS. Then longer-range missiles for HIMARS. Now, F-16 fighter jets (all of which have been destroyed by the Russians as of yesterday).
So now they're talking about giving Ukraine Western missiles to strike deep into Russia. But there's a problem: Those western missiles need US Satellites to guide them to target. And Russia has explicitly warned that if those western missiles are guided to target by US/NATO Satellites, then the US/NATO are direct parties to the conflict. They will be "at war" with Russia.
Guess who shows up again? The same Intel guys, saying "Russia won't do anything." They have already been proved wrong on almost every "Intel" assessment they made, and now they are daring to openly say the same nonsense again!
Why?
Because they have never been punched in the face for what they do. They've never learned that most basic lesson in life, that when you push and push and push a man, sooner or later he turns around, hauls-off, and knocks the living shit outta you.
Except these Intel guys are not just fucking themselves, they're fucking the rest of us. Because if Russia throws the punch, it will hit all of us. Nuclear weapons. Here. In America and over in Europe.
All because a bunch of "intel" guys never got punched in the face; never learned that in real life, if you push someone too far, you get the shit knocked outta ya.
This is real life. We are pushing Russia too far. Russia can - and I think WILL - knock the living shit outta us.
They have been warning and warning and warning us. But the sissy-Mary's in the West (who have never been punched in the face) call these warnings "threats." They're not threats, they're real life warnings; "if this, then that." Its a real warning, not a "threat."
Putin. Lavrov, Medvedev, The Speaker of the Russian Duma, the Russian Defense Minister, the Russian Ambassador to the US, the Russian Ambassador to the United Nations. . . . ALL of them have warned, and warned, and warned again. Seems like no one over here (or in Europe) is listening.
It is starting to look like the only way to get anyone's attention over here, is to punch them in the face. I think the Russians realize that. I think the Russians are going to HAVE to do that, because talk just doesn't work with the people over here or in Europe. It looks like the Russians have no choice left but to punch.
If it happens, and I hope it doesn't, the sissy-Marys in government, the Pentagon, the Intel community, will all be shocked and appalled, not understanding how or why it happened, when it was actually THEM who lead us all down this road.
They've never been punched in the face so they don't have any idea that they can actually push too far . . . and thereby trigger brutal consequences.
When they write our epitaph, it might say "Here lies a whole world, lead to destruction by sissy-Mary girlie men who never thought anyone would kill them for pushing too far. They were wrong."
