By now, most of the world knows that Iran launched a multi-faceted attack against Israel about 48 hours ago. The "fallout" from that attack is now becoming frighteningly clear, and it has Defense Experts TERRIFIED.
As the attack was in-progress, Iran undertook a very unusual, and apparently foolish, series of steps. They announced they had launched drones and then cruise missiles against Israel. They announced this despite the fact the drones and missiles still had 57 more minutes to travel before reaching their targets!
Expert Observers thought it very strange - and foolish - that an attacker would give out such information while the very weapons they launched had not yet arrived. It gave Israel and its allies time to go after those weapons, which they did.
Well . . . it turns out this was not strange or foolish - it was planned. Iran launched the old dregs of their arsenal! First generation drones. First generation cruise missiles. What they launched was the junk they had laying around for years! Slow moving, loud, junk. Iran WANTED Israeli defenses to focus on that old junk, and not on what they would fire next: Ballistic Missiles.
Many of the drones simply fell out of the sky from malfunctions. Others were easily intercepted by fighter jets from Israel, the US, and the UK, with some help from French naval assets in the Mediterranean Sea.
There was a much-heralded "99% interception success rate" broadcast around the world for all to hear. Turns out, there's a problem. A MAJOR problem: Iran's Ballistic Missiles. A few of them, got through.
Almost no one noticed this "problem" because there has been no media coverage of it, until this article.
The hint there was a BIG problem, came today. US Media reported:
"U.S. National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan stated today that the Department of Defense alongside U.S. Central Command is continuing to Increase the Readiness and Integration of Air Defenses and Early Warning Systems in the Middle East, in order to Erode the Effectiveness of Iran’s Missile and Drone Capabilities."
When I read that, I thought to myself "Who asked you?" Why say something like that? Unless . . . . unless. . . . there's a big problem. So I started looking, and asking questions. Here's what I found:
The missiles that hit the two bases in the Negev region didn't just "get through." They did so against the most-heavily-defended area in the world, protected with the most advanced, integrated, Anti-Ballistic-Missile (ABM) systems known to exist in the West.
Two Israeli Bases in the Negev region and one Intelligence Base in the far north of Israel on Mount Hermon, got hit by Iranian missiles.
In the north, the secret intelligence base in the north of the occupied Golan Heights located in Jabal al-Sheikh (Mount Hermon), got hit and seriously damaged.
In the south, the Israeli Nevatim and Ramon Bases got hit and THIS is where the problem reared its ugly head.
According to secret intelligence information, at the Nevatim Air Base in the Negev Desert, Hangar to Israel's F-35 Stealth aircraft and Mossad Spy aircraft, at least Forty-four (44) Mossad personnel were killed.
But for the Defense sector, that pales in comparison to what took place for Iran to achieve that.
Nevatim was defended by the world’s most advanced integrated anti-missile defense shield which incorporated Arrow 2, David’s Sling, THAAD, and Patriot 3 with the AN/TPY-2 X-band surveillance and targeting radar. This system was designed to exclusively defend against the Iranian medium-range ballistic missile threat.
Below is an actual photo of the actual radar deployed to protect those bases. Here is what it looks like:
And yet . . . 5 to 7 missiles hit Nevatim. The Israelis have acknowledged 2 runways and three warehouse structures hit.
Not a knockout blow — it wasn’t intended as such.
But any Battle Damage Assessment (BDA) expert would note that the point of impact was center mass, a clear indication of precision guidance.
5-7 missiles hit the world’s most heavily defended location, defeating an integrated ABM defense that was custom built to defeat the very missiles it failed to shoot down.
THAT has some people in the Defense sector, literally panicked. You see, if 5-7 missiles got through, then it is a given that others can get through. And simple math reveals that had Iran fired thirty (30) missiles at that base, the base would no longer exist.
The Iranians know this now. They __know__ Israeli "missile defenses" cannot stop their medium range ballistic missiles with any great reliability.
While Jordan fired US PATRIOT missiles to down a few Iranian missiles, Jordan's PATRIOTS are now completely depleted. They have NONE left.
Fighter jets did down a few additional Iranian missiles, but not many.
As such, Israel is not only vulnerable, there is no "filler" technology that can be quickly inserted into the advanced, integrated system, to make things better for Israel. Put simply, right now, Israel is factually defenseless from any large salvos of these missiles.
Think about that for a moment.
The most advanced, integrated air defense radar system in the world, its mission is to detect Iranian missile launches, and pass targeting data to Israeli Arrow, David’s Sling, and U.S. THAAD ABM batteries deployed to protect sensitive Israeli sites, including Dimona and the Nevatim and Ramon air bases.
Iranian missiles struck both Nevatim and Ramon air bases.
The best surveillance radar in the world, working in concert with the most sophisticated anti-missile defenses in the world, were impotent in the face of the Iranian attack.
What has galled Israel is not the attack itself, it was that the most advanced missile defense systems in the world couldn't stop the very missiles they were built to stop!
Iran has now achieved a "strategic deterrence" of Israel. Israel now knows Iran will hit them, but can also hit them at-will with missiles Israel cannot stop.
Even worse, now that the "junk" is gone from Iran's inventory, they can bring out the Second and third generation versions of their drones and missiles. Hezbollah did that TODAY. Hezbollah utilized almost silent, very-much-faster, jet powered drones to hit Israel in the north today.
People on the ground did not hear the drones until they were dive bombing the targets!
If Iran starts using these, the speed alone will cut down flight time, by half or more, making it even harder to intercept such drones if launched.
What the second or third generation cruise missiles might be able to do, none of us know yet.
We've now seen what Iran's Ballistic Missiles can do - nasty!
The Iran response to the Israel attack upon the Iranian Embassy in Syria, has opened a chasm in the Middle East balance of power. The world changed that day. Not in ways the general public knew - until now.
