U.S. Annual "Threat Assessment" is Out

"Russia seized the initiative on the front lines last year and can therefore extract the concessions it wants on the terms of a settlement in talks to end the war, although it will not be able to get all of its terms met. "US intelligence says in its report.

According to the US assessment, a war of attrition is playing to Russia's advantage and "will lead to a gradual but steady weakening of Kyiv's position on the battlefield, regardless of any efforts by the US or its allies to impose new and higher costs on Moscow."

For the US, continuing the war in Ukraine "increases the strategic risks of inadvertent escalation to a large-scale war and the use of nuclear weapons, increased instability among NATO allies, particularly in Central, Eastern, and Northern Europe, and a more emboldened China and North Korea."

The US says Russia has so far managed to recruit enough new troops and will be able to maintain its advantage over Ukraine in firepower.

According to the intelligence assessment, both Putin and Zelensky are interested in negotiations to end the war, but the Russian president "is likely to be open to the potential for a protracted conflict that the Russian economy can sustain, while Zelensky likely understands that his position is weakening, the future of Western aid is uncertain, and a ceasefire may ultimately be necessary."

However, both, according to the US intelligence assessment, currently believe that "the risks of a longer war are less than the risks of an unsatisfactory settlement."

"For Ukraine, ceding territory to Russia without meaningful Western security guarantees could create domestic backlash and future uncertainty," the intelligence report says.