Iran issued a Notice to Air Missions (NOTAM) Closing certain Iranian air space for "Rocket Launches" (presumably against Israel) during a 55 hour window this week. That window is now open.
In its NOTAM, Iran told pilots of commercial and private aircraft they must avoid specific areas of Iran because of Rocket Launches. Here is the NOTAM:
In Layman's terms, the Effective Period is From April 10, 2024, at 03:30 AM to April 12, 2024, at 10:30 AM (local time). The launches will occur daily during this window.
If the world takes Iran at it's word, missile launches WILL take place within 55 HOURS.
The coordinates mentioned in the NOTAM correspond (roughly) to the yellow area on the map below:
There has been very widespread speculation that a "deal" has been made between Iran and the US and/or Israel to avoid an Iranian missile strike. For instance, one speculation is that Iran agreed to avoid a military response to the Israeli bombing of their Embassy compound in Damascus, if the Israeli Army departed the Gaza Strip.
Israel did exactly that, over the weekend, without rational explanation. Israel **claimed** the troops need rest.
There is additional speculation that Iran will NOT attack Israel for fear of an Israeli counter-attack, and so, the theory goes, Iran will use Proxies like Hezbollah in Lebanon to make an attack. This speculation is laid to rest by repeated statements from Iran that they will be the ones to deal with Israel over the Embassy attack.
There is grotesque speculation that "Israel wouldn't dare attack Iran for fear of being nuked." This is completely irrational. Israel knows that if they use a nuclear weapon against Iran, the entire country of Israel will be nuked by other countries. So this theory is a non-starter . . . at least for rational people.
All of which leaves us where we are right now: In the actual window for launch, by Iran.
My Bet: Iran **WILL** launch. I also believe they will make a very significant attack.
That's when things get dicey. Depending on the size, scope and success of any Iranian attack, Israel will make a response - eve3n though Israel is the party that caused this whole mess by bombing the Iran Embassy compound.
It has apparently not occurred to Israel that they can and will be "hit back" when they hit other countries!
Perhaps Israel will take the hit and move on, thereby ending what could escalate into a major conflict.
All this remains to be seen, but we are, now, officially, "in the window" for Iran rocket launches.
