OP-ED: Russia-Ukraine trigger point for NATO coming within 45-60 days

OP-ED:  Russia-Ukraine trigger point for NATO coming within 45-60 days

Below is a piece written by an Observer of matters geo-political - not me -- about the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.  Although I did not write this, it is so "spot-on" that I decided to share it with all of you because  it expresses my sentiments and thoughts precisely.

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I want everyone of you to take a deep breath, and prepare for a flurry of events that will change the world forever, or at least for a very long time.

Always keep in mind what I have told since late 2021 : Russia set up a trap for the United Sates, they worked for at least a decade for this trap, and now, the United States fell into it.

I have decided to remove the word "West" in describing the side that Russia is in conflict with. There is no "West". It is just the United States and its vassals.

This conflict between the U.S. and Russia/China is going to end when one side achieves its objectives. There is no middle ground, there is no negotiation, because the goal of the United States is to take control of Russia (by weakening it, and create a 90's Russia, with oligarchs controlling Russia's resources and themselves being controlled by the U.S., in order to suppress China's rise, by controlling the flow of Russian resources), while the goal of Russia and China is to stop it.

If Russia and China could've stopped the United States by other means than militarily, it would have happened. The reason why the United States cannot be stopped otherwise, is mainly because of China. In China, the United States managed to create and sustain a system of very powerful Chinese economic oligarchs, that control China, and are being controlled by the U.S..

What the U.S. did not managed to do in Russia, they did in China. Putin removed/imprisoned/killed/replaced most of the Russian oligarchs, in a very short period of time; between 2000 and 2010.  Xi still is in the process of cleaning China, but the process is much slower and harder then what Putin faced in Russia.

In other words, China's economic power could not be used to weaken the U.S., and it is still far from being able to do so. The only option is to start a "nuclear" economic war, one that will see both China and the U.S. facing economic collapse and massive internal power struggle that will be from the very top, to the street level.

So, to sum up, the current conflict will end when one side will achieve its goals, the "victory" cannot be achieved economically, but militarily, and most important, the military "victory" must be achieved without nuclear war.

Back in late 2023, I predicted that Russia will re-open the Kharkiv-Sumy front when the Ukrainian defenses will start collapsing, and my estimate for this to happen was between January and April 2024, depending on a number of factors. As you all know by now, after Avdeevka fell, the Ukrainian defenses started crumbling in multiple directions.

When I predicted that this will happen, I was exclusively basing my reasoning on the lack of manpower, and the tremendous destruction that Russian military can bring to the front lines, and the inability of the United States and its vassals to sustain a flow of weapons and ammunition to Ukraine, that can replace what Russia is destroying, while using mathematical calculation applied to military power of both sides.

Obviously, I did not have the exact data to work with, this is why my predictions were confirmed at a later date, but they were confirmed, almost 90% of the time. I however said that when certain events that I predicted (the collapse of Ukrainian defense, the start of Kharkiv-Sumy offensive, Ukraine's inability to recruit, the U.S. and vassals inability to provide weaponry and ammo, etc.) will take place, and they did, the margin of error of my calculations, and hence, predictions, will be smaller.

While the current Kharkiv offensive is its early stages, and most, if not all of the people talking about it, are reluctant to quantify it, or to set predictions on how big this will be, my own calculations, again, based on what I have already predicted, is that the current Russian offensive is THE BIG ONE, the one that will break the camel's back.

Based on my calculations, the current manpower of Ukraine is roughly 300,000 troops, barely equipped, and most of them are forced recruits and/or people with minimal military training and combat experience. While this manpower managed to slowdown the Russian advances, by using the vast network of fortifications and fortified towns and villages that they prepared and strengthened since 2014...this is no longer the case.

The front cracked in multiple locations, some Ukrainian brigades fleeing without order, others refused to follow orders, Russia is taking control of towns and villages [at] an increasing rate, since Avdeevka fell, the current fortifications are much weaker, and Russian troops are now passed the mildly hilly areas and went into open terrain. The big picture is that the Ukrainian army is on the brink of collapse, after being reduced in the last 2 years, and especially in the last 3 months (talking about game changers, there is only one : Russian aviation using FAB bombs extensively across the front lines), and there are only 2 options left for Ukraine - capitulation or full retreat across Dniepr river.

As I said back in the summer of 2023, the retreat across Dniepr should have taken place THEN, otherwise Ukraine's army will be decimated. Retreating now across Dniepr will only BUY SOME TIME for the United States to send its troops and its vassals troops into Ukraine...IF that is what the U.S. is aiming to do...which I believe it is.

By opening the old fronts in Kahrkiv and Sumy, Russia is extending the current 300,000 poorly trained and equipped Ukrainian troops, to an additional 200-300 km front (I believe it will be much longer, around 600 km, because after Kharkiv, comes Sumy, and after, Chernigiv fronts), from a former 900 km front line.

Mathematically speaking, 300,000 Ukrainian troops defending a 900 km front line, will now have to defend a potential (and in my view 100% certain) a front line that is DOUBLE that.

Now, the military goal of Russia is to create the illusion that the United States and its vassal have a choice: commit to the fight, directly, and attempt to stop the collapse of Ukrainian army (or commit to this fight after Ukrainian army collapse), or...leave Ukraine being defeated, stay aside, and avoid WW3.

This is only a illusion of choice, because Russia is actually forcing the United States and its vassal to COMMIT to the fight.

Remember what I have said for over a year now? That Ukraine will NEVER GET F-16s? Well, they still didn't get any, and will never get any, for reasons that I have explained a year ago, but I will shortly summarize them now : F-16 is a platform that can only function within the NATO military framework, Ukraine doesn't have proper airfields for F-16s, and if we will ever see Western jets engaging the Russians, those will be piloted by NATO pilots and will operate from NATO airfields.

It is crystal clear that Ukraine lost the war, and the only hope to stop (it's just a hope, really) Russia is a massive influx of trained troops and military hardware, including a large number of fighter jets, helicopters, cruise missiles, etc.

Ukraine DOES NOT HAVE the trained manpower to operate the required quantity of military hardware that is needed to fight Russia. NATO can send ALL OF THEIR JETS AND TANKS to Ukraine...here aren't people to use them. And even if there were, such a large quantity of manpower and hardware will only be successful IF OPERATED WITHIN NATO FRAMEWORK AND DOCTRINE.

What I believe that will happen in the next 45 to 60 days, is, 100%, the collapse of Ukrainian Armed Forces. What is also 100% certain, in my view, is a number of NATO countries will OFFICIALLY ENTER the conflict in Ukraine, during, or right after the Ukrainian army collapses.

What is not certain, is how many NATO troops, how good they are, how equipped they are, and what is their goal. If the United States still believe that Russia can be weakened, those NATO troops will aim, at minimum, to secure Odessa and Kiev, which means that Dniepr river have to be secured, and be the new front line.

At this current attrition rate, the appetite for NATO countries to send troops, the Ukrainian Army have about 45 to 60 days to retreat beyond Dniepr, because they will still have roughly 200,000 troops, and NATO to send in at least 100,000 troops.

You cannot secure the Dniepr river without a MINIMUM of 300,000 troops, even if you blow up all the bridges. Keep in mind that Kiev is right on the Dniepr, split in two by the river. Also keep in mind that Russia can easily re-enter Ukraine from Belarus, making the Dniepr river irrelevant as a natural front line.

But, at least, they (200k Ukrainian and 100k NATO troops) can concentrate on the border of Belarus, on the defense of Kiev, and on the Kherson part of Dniepr, buying enough time to reinforce Odessa, Kiev and Belarusian border, give the proximity of Poland (Belarus and Kiev areas) and Romania (Odessa area).

So, to sum up : Ukrainian army is going to collapse in the next 45 to 60 days, during which they will retreat toward Dniepr, NATO troops will enter Ukraine, with the aim to create a strong defense in Kiev, along Belarusian border and on Kherson part of the Dniepr, to secure Odessa, and later on, with the aim of strengthening the above areas, while deploying along Western bank of the Dniepr.

This is basically, in my view, the only possibility to avoid a nuclear war, the conflict will end up in a stalemate between Russia and NATO, and diplomacy will, hopefully start happening.

But...there is a BIG BUT. The above (hopeful) scenario means a DEFEAT FOR BOTH RUSSIA AND NATO.

Without a serious buffer, Russia's security will always be at risk. Nothing less then what Russia asked NATO in December 2021 (removal of all NATO bases from Eastern Europe) is going to stop Russia. Nothing less then a defeat of Russia is going to stop the United States policy of weakening Russia.

A Russia that occupies half of Ukraine means that NATO was strategically defeated. A Russia that ONLY occupies half of Ukraine, while the other half is full of NATO troops, and all NATO bases are still in place across Eastern Europe, means a defeated Russia in its strategic goals.

If my today's prediction, that Ukraine army will collapse and start retreating across Dniepr, while NATO officially deploys troops in Ukraine will happen during the next 45 to 60 days...let us pray that a compromise will somehow happen, because the alternative is WORLD WAR 3.

I have very low hope that a compromise will happen...

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Hal Turner Remarks

I very much admire and respect the concise assembly of thought and facts above.  It took many aspects of the current conflict into account, and laid out realistic results/consequences of each.  Very well written, i think.

This past Friday night, on my radio show, I alerted listeners that a new offensive had commenced by Russia, heading for Kharkiv.  The piece above speaks about that.

What I did not project in my remarks, the piece above does.  The timeline is always the big unknown. 

For instance, when I reported on my radio show that Ukraine assessed Russia's offensive would being in the late summer, early fall, I had to point out they were way wrong because it had already begun Friday.

The Russians have made very significant gains in the past few days.   The Ukraine Army is crumbling already.

So while the writer above suggests 45-60 days for things to come to the point where NATO has to crap or get off the pot, it could be much faster than that.  It could also be slower.  As above the timeline is always the big unknown.

What is known, though, is that time has grown very short.  Whatever enormous event/change is coming, it is now VERY close.  

If this thing goes wild weasel, and we start getting hit by Russian missiles here in the USA, you had better be prepared.  Food, water, Medicine, generator, fuel for it, radio gear for communications, cash money in your house -- not to pay bills, but to survive on.  Guns, ammo, and mental willingness to shoot other human beings who are trying to steal your food.

I have a sick feeling we're heading into some horrifying calamity; and almost no one in the entire country, seems aware of it.  The mass media has not reported the serious developments and goings-on relating to the conflict.  The American people, and most Europeans, will likely be totally blind-sided when it happens.

YOU have the upper hand.  YOU pay attention to sites like this one.  YOU have had advance warning.  YOU will have prepared as best you can, and that will put YOU faaaaar ahead of the general public.

In any event, get right with God.  


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